Bhubaneswar: Heavy rain may batter Odisha on. October 27-28 with the India Meteorological Department’s Extended Range Outlook predicting further intensification of the low-pressure area, which is likely to form over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal around October 23, into a depression around October 25 morning.
“The cyclonic circulation, which lies over southeast & adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal and Andaman Islands , is likely to move west-northwestwards and under its influence a low-pressure area is likely to form over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal around October 23. Thereafter, it is likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify further into a depression during middle of week 1 (around October 25 morning) with high probability,” it said.
The system is likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify further during subsequent three days, it added.
Under its influence, Odisha may experience heavy rainfall alongside thundersqualls with wind speeds reaching 50 to 60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph on October 27 and 28.
Earlier, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggested that the LoPAR could intensify into a depression around October 28 and move towards the Odisha coast. Some international models project the system could approach the coast around October 27, with possible landfall the following day, though exact path, location and timing remain uncertain.
AccuWeather International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls also noted a good chance of a cyclone developing in the Bay of Bengal near the Andaman Islands late this week or over the weekend, with potential impacts stretching from Andhra Pradesh to Odisha and West Bengal around the middle of next week.
However, senior meteorologist Umasankar Das, in a post on X, said that an analysis of Bay of Bengal cyclones from 1985 to 2012 indicates that post-monsoon October storms typically head toward Odisha and West Bengal during La Niña years, but shift toward Andhra Pradesh or Tamil Nadu during El Niño years. However, in November during La Niña years, the cyclones can head towards any region along the east coast. In the month of December, cyclones never head towards Odisha.
Incidentally, the world is currently experiencing an unprecedented, record-shattering “Super El Niño” event.
Strong Wind & Rough Sea
The IMD further stated that squally weather with wind speed reaching 35-45 gusting to 55 kmph may prevail over eastcentral and adjoining southest Bay of Bengal from October 23 evening. It is likely to increase further becoming 45-55 gusting to 65 kmph by October 24 evening, becoming 50-60 gusting to 70 kmph over eastcentral & adjoining westcentral & southeast Bay of Bengal by October 25 evening.
Gale wind exceeding 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph is expected over westcentral and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal from October 26. It is likely to increase further with west-northwestward movement of the system and it’s intensification till October 28.
Sea condition is likely to be moderate to rough over eastcentral Bay of Bengal from October 23 evening. It is likely to become rough to very rough from October 24 evening onwards over central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. It is likely to be very rough over central Bay of Bengal from October 25 evening and high to very high from October 26 morning to October 28 over west central and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal.
Advisory
Fishermen have been advised not to venture into eastcentral & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal from October 23 evening to October 25 and into westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal from October 26 to 28. Shipping, port and offshore operators are advised to review operational preparedness and monitor subsequent forecasts for possible restrictions on weather-sensitive activities during October 23-29.
