Can India Afford Another Lockdown?

Bhubaneswar: Partial resumption of commercial establishments and government offices, opening up of liquor shops and air space, starting trains – are all these measures a pointer that there won’t be a third lockdown?

Apart from shaking the economy, COIVD-19 has also shaken the morale of the people, especially those living on the margins. The plight of the migrant workers has added to the gloomy picture. In some parts of the country, the angst of the people has taken the form of protests, dharnas and violence.  In J&K’s Kathua. workers began a riot when they had to undergo a salary cut and started targetting Army vehicles. In Uttarakhand’s Haldwani, daily wage workers staged a dharna. Some migrant workers blocked a road near Agra when they were stopped by the security personnel.

But then, this is what happens when a country spends less than 2% of its GDP on health. It is clear that however hard the Centre might try, it is not able to manage the crisis brought on by the pandemic. It needs all the help it can get and it must engage civil society in this battle, writes Hindustan Times.

According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, when the lockdown was declared, the unemployment rate in the country was around 7% and now, it has touched 27%. Another study suggests that 10 million agricultural labourers in Maharashtra are now jobless; 7.5 million workers in Uttar Pradesh; 6.8 million in Tamil Nadu; 5.2 million in Gujarat, and 4.7 million in West Bengal. International agencies predict either a sharp slowdown in growth or an outright recession.

Catch 22 situation

As the completion of lockdown 2.0 approaches on May17, the question looming large in front of the government is: Should there be another lockdown at the cost of the country’s economy? Should the lockdown be lifted at the risk of increased transmision of the virus?

Sweden decided not to impose any restrictions and yet managed to get a hold on the number of casualties. It reported less deaths than Italy, Spain and the UK where there were lockdowns. 

India has been very cautious till now. The government’s harsh measures have been applauded by other countries. While it is too early to say whether India has been able to contain the virus, at least the pause due to the lockdowns gave it enough time to put its act together in terms of preparedness. 

But thus far, no further. It is now time to change the plan of action to get the wheels of business moving. A country, which has seen tuberculosis and malaria, will now perhaps have to learn to live with COVID-19 till a vaccine is discovered albeit with strict measures such as enforcement of physical distancing. 

“In India if we continue with what is believed to be the severest lockdown of any country, we could end up with an economic situation in which millions of very poor people will be pushed back under that awful poverty line. They could become more desperate than ever because, if the government of India runs out of money, how will it continue to fund those vast welfare schemes that are currently the only safety net?” writes well-known journalist, Tavleen Singh