COVID-19

COVID Third Wave: Trajectory Has Changed, Peak Likely On Jan 23, Says IIT Scientist

By
OB Bureau

Kanpur: It may not be long before the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic peaks in India.

According to IIT-Kanpur scientist Manindra Agrawal, the trajectory has changed and the downward curve may start after January 23 without cases reaching the 4-lakh daily mark, as it did during the deadly second wave last year.

Agrawal’s analysis is based on the fact that Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata – three of the worst-hit cities during the Omicron-driven spike — have already reached their peak over the last few days, PTI reported.

Agrawal, one of the researchers associated with Sutra COVID model that has been used to track and predict infection numbers in the country since the beginning of the pandemic, said coronavirus cases will peak in Maharashtra, Karnataka, UP, Gujarat, and Haryana this week, while states like Andhra Pradesh, Assam, and Tamil Nadu may peak next week.

Also Read: COVID 3rd Wave In Odisha Likely To Peak By Jan-End With 30,000-40,000 Daily Cases

“Trajectory with data up to 11th indicates the peak on 23rd January with nearly 7.2 lakh cases per day. The actual trajectory is already deviating significantly, and the actual peak is unlikely to cross 4 lakh cases/day,” tweeted Agrawal, who had earlier predicted that the third wave will peak by the end of January.

“Across the country, the trajectories are changing significantly. I speculated earlier that it is due to ICMR guidelines for a changed testing strategy. However, at many places, these guidelines are not yet implemented and still, the trajectory has changed!” he said.

Explaining the likely reason for the change in Omicron-driven case trajectory in India, Agrawal said: “There are two groups in the population, one with less immunity against Omicron and the other with more. The mutant first spread in the first group causing a sharp rise. Now the first group is exhausted and so the spread is slower.”

OB Bureau

Recent Posts

Japanese National Recovers From COVID At SUM Hospital In Bhubaneswar

Bhubaneswar: A Japanese national, who was afflicted with COVUD while he was on a visit…

June 29, 2022

‘There’s Threat To Kill Me, Please Save Me’: Udaipur Victim Sought Security 2 Weeks Before Murder

Udaipur: Two weeks before his ghastly murder, Kanhaiya Lal had written to the local administration…

June 29, 2022

Dhenkanal Receives Highest Rainfall In Odisha; Check IMD Forecast For Other Dists

Bhubaneswar: As southwest monsoon has become fully active across Odisha, several places experienced heavy rainfall…

June 29, 2022

Vice President Election On August 6; Last Date For Filing Nominations July 19

New Delhi: Along with a new President, India will soon get its next Vice President…

June 29, 2022

Vigilance Apprehends Additional CTO Taking Rs 2 Lakh Bribe In Odisha’s Jagatsinghpur

Jagatsinghpur: Vigilance officials apprehended an additional commercial tac officer (ACTO) on charge of taking Rs…

June 29, 2022

Beheading Of Udaipur Tailor: Killers Linked To Pakistani Religious Movement

Udaipur: A Pakistan link has emerged in the gruesome murder of tailor Kanhaiya Lal here.…

June 29, 2022