Cyclone Mocha: Low Pressure To Form Over Bay Today; Forecast Models Indicate Change Of Path

Bhubaneswar: All eyes are on formation of a low pressure over Southeast Bay of Bengal and India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) subsequent forecast on path and intensification of the system.

“A cyclonic circulation lies over southeast Bay of Bengal & adjoining south Andaman Sea and extends up to middle tropospheric level. Under its influence a low pressure area is likely to form today, May 8 over the same region. It is likely to intensify into a depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea around May 9,” the agency predicted.

The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm thereafter while moving nearly northwards towards central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea. There is no immediate threat from the cyclonic storm, the weatherman said on Monday. The route of the cyclone will be clear in the next two days.

While the MeT office said that details of its path and intensification will be provided after the formation of the low pressure area, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on Monday indicted a change of path and the possible cyclone heading towards Bangladesh coast very close to Indian east coast around May 14-15 instead of Myanmar.

According to the GFS model, the cyclone is shifting path and moving towards Bangladesh and Myanmar border. And the storm will be at least a ESCS (Cat-4) in intensity as per latest prediction.

There is a possibility that the system may make landfall in the coastal belt of Bangladesh-Myanmar by the end of next week affecting south Bengal, the IMD said.

The weather monitoring agency had earlier noted large variation in genesis and landfall forecasts by different weather models, though they agreed on intensification of this system into a severe cyclonic storm.

According to the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by IMD on Sunday, there is large variation among various forecast models on the genesis with IMD GFS indicating depression around May 8, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) on May 9 and ECMWF on May 11.

“The variation continues among these models with landfall point varying between 16.0/94.8 (GFS) and 17.0/94.9 (ECMWF) during May 13-14,” it said.

NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM), on the other hand, is indicating no significant intensification of the system and west-northwestwards movement towards Tamil Nadu coast and emergence into southeast Arabian Sea.

IMD MME is also indicating depression around May 8 over south Andaman Sea with nearly northwards movement till May 13 towards eastcentral Bay of Bengal, it added.

According to senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls, “A tropical low is expected to form in the vicinity of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands over the next couple of days, then can become a depression by midweek. System can become cyclonic storm Mocha before impacting Myanmar, NE India or Bangladesh toward next weekend.”

Upon its intensification into a cyclonic storm, the system will be called Cyclone Mocha, a name suggested by Yemen. It originates from the Yemeni city Mocha (or Mokha) located on the Red Sea coast, which is known to have introduced coffee to the world over 500 years ago. Mocha is a chocolate-flavoured warm beverage that is a variant of coffee.

Rainfall Warning

Moderate rainfall at most places during May 8-12with scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall and isolated extremely heavy falls very likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands on May 10-11 and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall on May 8, 9, 12.

Wind Warning

a) Squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely to prevail over southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and adjoining Andaman Sea on May 8.

b) Wind speed would gradually increase becoming 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and adjoining Andaman Sea on May 9.

c) Wind speed would further increase gradually becoming 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph over southeast and adjoining central Bay of Bengal, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Andaman Sea during May 10-12.

Sea condition

Sea condition is likely to be rough over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea on May 8 and very rough from May 9 onwards. It is likely to be very rough to high over southeast and adjoining central Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea from May 10-12.

Advisory

a) Fishermen, small ships, boats and trawlers are advised not to venture into southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of Andaman Sea from May 7 onwards, and into southeast & adjoining central Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea from May 7 onwards.

b) Those who are over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea are advised to return to safer places and those over central Bay of Bengal and north Andaman Sea are advised to return before May 9.

c) Regulation of tourism and offshore activities and shipping near Andaman and Nicobar Islands during May 8- 12

d) Regulation of shipping activity over the sea areas of southeast & central Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea during May 8-12. Fishermen, small ships, boats and trawlers are advised not to venture into southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of Andaman Sea from May 8 onwards and into southeast & adjoining central Bay of Bengal from May 9 onwards.