Bhubaneswar: A cyclonic circulation lies over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood in lower & middle tropospheric level. Under its influence, a Low Pressure Area is likely to form over the same region by May 8 morning, the India Meteorological Department (IMD0 informed on Sunday.
It is likely to concentrate into a depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal around May 9. Thereafter, it is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm while moving nearly northwards towards central Bay of Bengal. The details of its path and intensification will be provided after the formation of the low pressure area, it added.
Upon its intensification into a cyclonic storm, the system will be called Cyclone Mocha, a name suggested by Yemen. It originates from the Yemeni city Mocha (or Mokha) located on the Red Sea coast, which is known to have introduced coffee to the world over 500 years ago. Mocha is a chocolate-flavoured warm beverage that is a variant of coffee.
Meanwhile, the MeT office has issued advisory for fishermen, warning them against venturing into the Bay of Bengal, which is likely to experience squally weather with gusty winds up to the speed of 60 kmph due to the cyclonic disturbance on May 7. The wind speed might gradually increase to 80 kmph by May 11, resulting in rough sea conditions.
There is heavy rainfall warning for Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Kerala and Mahe from May 8.
PROBABLE PATH
The MeT office in its Tropical Weather Outlook on May 6 had said that there is large variations among different models on the time of genesis. The IMD GF indicated depression around May 8, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) on May 9 and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on May 10
It further said that these models are indicating intensification of this system into a severe cyclonic storm. However, there is large variation among these models with landfall point varying from south to northeast Myanmar between May 13-14.
NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM), on the other hand, is indicating no significant intensification of the system and west-northwestwards movement towards Tamil Nadu coast and emergence into southeast Arabian Sea.
According to senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls, “A tropical low is expected to form in the vicinity of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands over the next couple of days, then can become a depression by midweek. System can become cyclonic storm Mocha before impacting Myanmar, NE India or Bangladesh toward next weekend.”
