Bhubaneswar: The well-marked low pressure over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal concentrated into a Depression on Saturday evening over the same region, about 510 km north-northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram (Andaman Islands), 820 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 910 km east-southeast of Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh), 1020 km east of Machilipatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and 1100 km east of Bapatla (Andhra Pradesh).
According to the India Meteorological Department, it is very likely to move nearly southwards, intensify into a Deep Depression and then gradually recurve west-northwestwards over the eastcentral & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal on October 26. Continuing to move west-northwestwards, it is very likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm, to be named as Arnab, over the eastcentral & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal by October 26 morning, and into a severe cyclonic storm over westcentral Bay of Bengal around morning of October 27.
Thereafter, the system is very likely to move northwestwards, intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm and reach Westcentral Bay of Bengal near Andhra Pradesh coast around morning of October 28. It is very likely to cross Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam as a very severe cyclonic storm with the maximum sustained wind speed of 115-125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph by forenoon of October 28.
Under the influence of the system, heavy to very heavy rainfall may occur at one or two places in the districts of Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati, and Ganjam on on October 27. Thunderstorm accompanied by lightning and gusty surface wind (40-50 kmph) is also likely in Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati, Ganjam, and Puri. The MeT office has also warned of heavy rainfall, along with thunderstorm accompanied by lightning and gusty surface wind (30-40 kmph gusting to 50 Kmph) at one or two places in the districts of Baleshwar, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Kataka, Kendujhar, Mayurbhanj, Kandhamala, Kalahandi, Nabarangpur, Khordha and Nayagada.
On October 28, Red Warning of heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy rainfall has been issued for the districts of Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati and Ganjam. Thunderstorm accompanied by lightning and gusty surface wind (60-70 kmph gusting to 80 Kmph) may also occur at one or two places in the districts of Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati and Ganjam.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall may continue in Baleshwar, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Jagatsinghpur, Kataka, Mayurbhanj, Sonpur, Boudh, Nuapada, Balangir, Kalahandi, Kandhamala, Nabarangpur, Baragada, Puri, Khordha, Nayagada.
Thunderstorm accompanied by lightning and gusty surface wind (40-50 kmph gusting to 60 Kmph) is also likely at one
or two places in the districts of Puri, Khordha, Sonpur, Boudh, Nuapada, Balangir, Kalahandi, Kandhamala, Nabarangpur, and Baragada
Heavy rainfall could lash districts of Sundaragada, Jharsuguda, Sambalpur, Debagada, Anugola, Dhenkanal, and Kendujhar. Thunderstorm accompanied by lightning and gusty surface wind (30-40 kmph gusting to 50 Kmph) is also likely in Baleshwar, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Jagatsinghpur, Kataka, Sundaragada, Jharsuguda, Baragada, Sambalpur, Debagada, Anugola, Dhenkanal, Kendujhar and Mayurbhanj.
On October 29, heavy to very heavy rainfall, along with thunderstorm accompanied by lightning and gusty surface wind (40-50 kmph gusting to 60 Kmph), may continue at one or two places in the districts of Baleshwar, Sundaragada, Jharsuguda, Sambalpur, Kendujhar and Mayurbhanj. Hevay rainfall with winds gust up to 50 Kmph is also likely in over the districts of Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Jagatsinghapur, Baragada, Debagada, Anugola, Dhenkanal, Sonpur, Nuapada and Balangir.
Squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-50 gusting to 60 kmph may prevail along & off adjoining areas of South Odisha coast from October 27 evening to October 27 evening and decrease thereafter. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea till October 28.
Strong winds may damage kutcha structures, break tree branches, and disrupt power/communication lines. Waterlogging and urban inundation could lead to major traffic disruptions and road closures. Standing crops, banana, and papaya plantations are also at high risk of damage due to high wind speeds and field inundation. Hilly regions in southern Odisha face threats of localized landslides and mudslides, while prolonged rainfall may trigger riverine flooding in vulnerable catchments.
Marine transportation, small boats, trawlers, and offshore operations will be impacted. Helicopter services and recreational tourism activities along coastal areas are to be strictly regulated.
Residents in vulnerable regions are urged to monitor official advisories, avoid unnecessary travel, unplug electronic equipment during thunderstorms, and remain prepared to relocate to cyclone shelters if instructed by local authorities.
