Dubai: With the Iran-backed Houthis entering the West Asia conflict, a new choke point has emerged to the south of the Strait of Hormuz.
Focus has now shifted to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, a narrow stretch of water that actually means the “Gate of Tears” in Arabic. If this corridor gets blocked, there will be severe consequences globally.
“Bab el-Mandeb has become even more important in the current situation because once Hormuz comes under pressure, attention immediately shifts to the next major choke point that can disrupt both energy flows and global trade. Hormuz is the bigger oil shock point, but Bab el-Mandeb is the broader trade shock point. As the southern gateway to the Red Sea and Suez corridor, any serious threat there affects not only tankers but also container services, breakbulk, dry cargo movements, vessel availability, insurance, war risk premiums, and overall voyage economics on the Asia-Europe route,” said Nayeem Noor, vice president for business development at GMS, the world’s largest cash buyer of ships, as reported by NDTV.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. At roughly 100 kilometres in length and 30 kilometres in width, it separates Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula from Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa.
Ships travelling between Asia and Europe must pass through the Strait en route to the Suez Canal, making it one of the busiest and most strategically important shipping lanes in the world.
It is estimated that nearly 10-12 per cent of global oil and natural gas shipments move through Bab el-Mandeb. Roughly 12 per cent of global trade transits the strait, while about 10 per cent of global maritime trade — including 40 per cent of container traffic — passes through the Suez Canal.
“What makes the present situation particularly serious is that the industry has already seen how quickly shipping patterns change when confidence in the route weakens. A formal closure is not even necessary. Sustained missile or drone threats alone can force ships to divert around the Cape of Good Hope. Once that happens, transit times lengthen, fuel costs rise, round voyages become longer, and freight levels come under pressure. In that sense, Bab el-Mandeb is now the key secondary pressure point after Hormuz. If both are affected at the same time, the fallout goes well beyond oil and becomes a much wider maritime trade disruption issue,” Noor told NDTV.
An Iranian military official, speaking to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, warned that Tehran could escalate “insecurity in other straits, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea” if further attacks are carried out on Iranian energy infrastructure by the US and Israel.
The Red Sea route, via Bab el-Mandeb, has taken on increased importance because of the logjam at the Strait of Hormuz.
Pipelines move crude oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, from where it is transported by tankers without passing through Hormuz.
“Bab el-Mandeb is not used only for oil. It is a major commercial shipping artery linking the Indian Ocean with the Red Sea and the Suez route. In 2025, more than 12,700 vessels transited the Suez Canal. On that connected corridor, tankers accounted for the largest share at about 39 per cent of total traffic. Container ships, bulk carriers, general cargo vessels, LNG carriers, Ro/Ro ships, and other vessel types also formed an important part of the mix. So while oil and tanker traffic are a very significant component, this is clearly a broader trade route used for energy, bulk cargo, containerised trade, and overall supply chain connectivity. The wider Red Sea corridor carries about 30 per cent of global container traffic, which underlines the strategic importance of Bab el-Mandeb as a key maritime choke point,” Kiran Thorat, trader, GMS, has been quoted as saying.
Industry experts say that oil prices could cross the $150 per barrel mark if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait gets blocked or significantly disrupted.
The flow of traffic through the Suez Canal has already been reduced significantly due to attacks by the Houthis, even before the war started. Authorities said that around 26,000 ships transited the canal in 2023. By 2025, that number had fallen to 12,700 following the attacks.
The Bab el-Mandeb is commercially very important and strategically significant for India and any closure of this transit route would severely impact the country’s energy imports.
“Oil and gas cargoes moving through the Suez Canal would have to be diverted via the Cape of Good Hope, leading to longer ton-miles, higher transport costs, and delays of at least a month in the arrival of Russian crude. This would directly raise energy and logistics costs for Indian industry, affect manufacturing through higher input costs and supply chain disruption, and add to inflationary pressure. At the same time, because Bab el-Mandeb is the gateway to the Suez route, any disruption would also increase freight and insurance costs, extend transit times, strain supply chains, and weaken the competitiveness of Indian trade in key westbound markets,” Noor said.
