Haryana, Maharashtra & Hindu Vote Bank: Why Poll Results Keep ‘Surprising’ Us

‘Surprising’ is a term that has become routine in the political discussion after every election. The scale of victory of one party or the other has been befuddling poll observers, analysts and political parties alike. Be it Maharashtra, Haryana and even in the general elections of 2024, the results were in sharp contrast to the mood visible on the ground and conventional wisdom of electoral politics. Now, the very idea of ‘surprise’ needs a rethinking.

It’s obvious that the traditional tools of journalism are failing badly to get a measure of the public mood. When field reporting, opinion polls, exit polls and dispassionate evaluation of political developments in terms of their electoral impact prove inadequate to forecast results on the counting day with some accuracy, then it must be acknowledged that something is wrong with the tools or there has been a fundamental shift somewhere else.

Since the BJP has been on the winning side of the surprise more often and since it is in power at the centre with considerable resources to influence elections, it’s convenient to blame money power, misuse of agencies or manipulation of EVMs. But that doesn’t change the reality of our failure to foresee results with some accuracy. An error within a specific band is understandable but not missing the mark by a huge margin.

So what has changed? Let’s have a look.

Beyond Bread And Butter Matters

Issues such as price rise, unemployment and corruption are no longer electoral game-changers. Years ago, elections campaigns were being built solely around these subjects. They provided ballast to the opposition’s campaign and were a force-multiplier to the general mood of anti-incumbency. The trend in the last few elections suggests that either these issues are non-existent for the voters or there are bigger concerns taking over.

Hindu Vote Bank Has Settled In

The ‘batoge to katoge‘ pitch of the BJP in all assembly elections of this round and by-polls in Uttar Pradesh, was brilliantly designed to keep Hindu votes together. It worked. The consolidation of the Hindu vote bank in politically critical states is nearly complete. And Hindutva overrides all issues mentioned earlier. So any campaign of the opposition in future needs to be designed keeping this reality in mind. Just raising bread and butter issues won’t help.

Society Needs To Be Perceived Afresh

The old slogans on poverty need massive updating, because rural and tribal societies live much better today than earlier. Survival is no longer the issue, thanks to government intervention for a long time, and add-ons to life are. Free ration have freed them from minimum worries besides leaving surplus money in the hand. Parties harping on the capitalist-people conflict could be missing the point. They are addressing a crowd that has moved on.

The journalistic mindset too remains grooved in the social issues relevant in the past. The usual approach of talking to a cross-section of the demography thus doesn’t throw up a clear picture. The conclusion derived from such a picture is likely to be inaccurate. The changed times need an entirely new approach.