Bhubaneswar: A cyclonic storm is likely to brew over the west-central Bay of Bengal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) informed on Tuesday.
It further said that the cyclonic circulation, which had formed the previous day, is active in North Andaman sea and its neighbourhood. The system is likely to concentrate into a low pressure over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal in the next 48 hours. Thereafter, it may move in the west-northwestward direction and intensify into a depression in the central Bay of Bengal around October 22.
“Yesterday’s cyclonic circulation over south Andaman Sea and neighbourhood lay over north Andaman Sea and neighbourhood at 3 am on October 18. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal during the next 48 hours. It is likely to move west-northweswards and concentrate into a depression by October 22 morning over central Bay of Bengal. It is very likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm over west-central BoB subsequently,” the IMD said.
Though the depression is likely to become well-marked and turn into a storm, the national forecaster has mentioned nothing about its intensity and path.
Different weather models have been indicating different paths of the anticipated cyclone. Some have predicted that the cyclone could brush past Odisha, moving towards West Bengal and Bangladesh borders while others indicated that it might reach the eastern Indian coast between Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.
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The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has indicated the system may cross north Odisha-West Bengal coast on October 26, while the Global Forecast System (GFS) model has suggested that it will hit the Andhra Pradesh coast on October 25.
Notably, the sea surface temperature of about 29 degree Celsius to 30 degree Celsius is ideal for intensification of the system into a tropical storm.
The MeT office has also forecast fairly widespread rains and thundershower activity between October 21 and 27, which may dampen Diwali festivities in Odisha.
According to former director of IMD, Bhubaneswar, Sarat Sahu there is a high possibility of the system being converted into a cyclone and it is likely to cross the Andhra-Odisha coast or Odisha coast or Odisha-West Bengal coast between October 24 and 26.
“Its intensity will be known around October 22. However, the coastal areas of Odisha will experience heavy rainfall under its influence between October 23 and 26,” he added.
