Bhubaneswar: With various weather models predicting a possible cyclone over Bay of Bengal next week, India Meteorological Department (IND) DG Dr Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra on Saturday said that a clearer picture will emerge only after formation of a low-pressure area around October 21.
“We have made no prediction on whether the system will develop into a cyclonic storm. October is known as the month of cyclones and some weather models are indicating probability of cyclogenesis. We provide a forecast on path and intensification of a system after assessing over 10 weather models but right now there is no consensus among them as a low-pressure area is yet to be formed,” he said.
While it is too early to make a cyclone prediction, the system is likely to have an impact on coastal areas of North Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh, he said.
Rough sea conditions will prevail along and off coastal areas from October 22-25, he said, adding that the coastal region of Odisha is likely to receive heavy rainfall from October 23-25.
While a low-pressure area is expected to form over Eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea on October 21, it is likely to move northwestwards and intensify further into a depression around October 23, according to IMD.
Also Read: Is Cyclone ‘Dana’ Brewing Over Bay? Heavy Rain To Lash Odisha On Oct 19, 23…
The weather agency has warned of squally weather with wind speed 35 kmph to 45 kmph gusting to 55 kmphis likely to prevail over Eastcentral and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal on October 21-22. Squally weather with wind speed 40 kmph to 50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely to prevail over many parts of Eastcentral Bay of Bengal and wind speed of 35 kmph to 45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph over most parts of Central Bay Of Bengal and Southern parts of North Bay of Bengal on October 23.
Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea in these regions during this period.
The IMD GFS indicates low-pressure area over east Bay of Bengal on October 22, a depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal on October 24, cyclonic storm over central parts of Bay of Bengal on October 24 and northeast movement towards Odisha coast till October 26 and towards West Bengal coast by October 29.
International meteorological agencies have also predicted a full-blown cyclone between October 23-24. The European Union Weather Forecast Model on October 16 indicated a 70%-80% chance of cyclogenesis.
Odisha may face its brunt if the system intensifies and continues its northwest track.
While stating that the cyclonic circulation over Andaman Sea may intensify into a low-pressure area over Andaman Sea by October 22, private forecaster Skymet said that the system may head towards Odisha and Andhra Pradesh coastlines. “Notwithstanding the low accuracy of weather models after a period of 4-5 days, there are enough signs available for further intensification of this system. The low-pressure will move northwest to central parts of BoB and intensify to a depression on October 23. As it appears, the weather system may be heading for the coastline of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. In that case, only limited sea travel will be available with the depression for further intensification. The truncated stretch may only allow it to pick up the initial category of storm and therefore unlikely to become too harsh to strike the coastline,” it said.
Taking to his X handle, senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls wrote: “A tropical low will form near the Andaman & Nicobar Islands early next week & can strengthen to a cyclonic storm before threatening the Odisha or WestBengal coast late next week.”
This cyclone is likely to be named Dana, a name given by Qatar.
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