Nayagarh: The sailing might not be smooth for four-time BJD MLA Arun Kumar Sahoo, who is re-election from Nayagah Assembly seat, with queen of Nayagarh royal family and former Lok Sabha member, Pratyusha Rajeshwari Singh, in the fray as the BJP candidate.
Ranjit Dash is the Congress’ nominee from the seat.
Nayagarh has been a BJD stronghold for about two and half decades with Arun winning the seat since 2004. His vote share has also increased in subsequent elections. He had polled in 61,400 votes in 20o9 and touched 81,548 in 2019. His contender, Irani Ray, could also garner a good 66,600 votes for BJP in last elections compared to only 7,521 in 2014.
The political dynamics, however, has changed this time with political leaders switching sides ahead of the polls.
What’s the Change
Irani, who got about 43 per cent votes and increased the BJP’s vote share by 37 per cent in the last elections, is now in BJD which could be a gain for Arun. This can also lead to a split in the BJP votes. If the Congress’ vote share increases and BJP also manages to keep its support base intact, the BJD will see a fall in its votes.
Arun Vs Rani Pratyusha
The BJD has been winning Nayagarh since 2000. Arun, who started as a student leader and became a known face in state politics, was instrumental in bringing Irani into the BJD fold.
Will the BJP be able to arrest any split in its votes through the queen of Nayagarh? Though contesting the Assembly elections for the first time, Pratyusha is not new to politics. She was elected to the Lok Sabha on a BJD ticket from Kandhamal in a by-election in October 2014 following the death of her MP husband Hemendra Singh. The BJP has strategically fielded her to change the course of Nayagarh politics, and the prevailing Modi wave might swing votes in her favour.
Development vs Change
Arun’s victory strategy is based on Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik’s development agenda. He is actively campaigning banking on the party’s welfare schemes. BJD leader V K Pandian has also campaigned extensively for him.
The BJP, on the other hand, is pushing for a change in the state while trying to strike a chord with the people of the state with its Odia Asmita plank. While stating that a “Tamil babu” is ruling the roost in Odisha, Union Home Minister Amit Shah urged the people to vote for the BJP to free the state from “babu raj” during his rally at Nayagarh on May 21. He further stated that Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, who is 77 years old, should retire due to his “advanced age and health issues” and promised to make a young Odia-speaking ‘bhumiputra‘ the CM if the party is voted to power in the state.
The CM has hit back at the BJP, saying that there is a limit to the amount of lies it is peddling about his health.
Nayagarh’s Influence In Puri
Nayagarh Assembly constituency is a part of Puri Lok Sabha constituency and the voters here will also play an important role in deciding the fate of Puri Lok Sabha candidates.
Arun has a good support base in Nayagarh but the allegation of shielding the culprit involved in the kidnap and murder of a 5-year-old girl in the district, despite being given a clean chit by the police, can dent his vote share. Pratyusha may gain from this controversy and also benefit from the anti-incumbency against the BJD government, which is in power for an unbroken 24 years in Odisha.
On the other hand, Congress candidate Ranjit has been claiming that he is the son of the soil. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to increase the vote share of Congress which fell to 11.66% in 2019 from 14.76% in 2014, which will also probably determine Arun’s political destiny.
