The World Bank’s latest India Development Update, titled “India’s Trade Opportunities in a Changing Global Context,” says that while India’s economic growth remains robust, achieving the $1 trillion merchandise export goal by 2030 will require significant strategic adjustments. By focusing on diversifying its export basket and enhancing global value chain integration, India can unlock new growth opportunities and bolster its position in the global economy.
Despite the impressive growth, the report underscores the need for India to diversify its export portfolio and enhance its participation in global value chains to achieve its ambitious target of $1 trillion in merchandise exports by 2030.
The report reveals that India remains the fastest-growing major economy, with a robust growth rate of 8.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2023/24. This rapid expansion comes amid a backdrop of global economic uncertainty and shifting trade dynamics.
The report says, “India maintained its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with a real GDP growth rate of 8.2 per cent in FY23/24. Real Gross Value Added (GVA) grew by 7.2 per cent, up from 6.7 per cent in the previous year.”
It further said, “On the supply side, growth was primarily driven by a rebound in manufacturing, which grew by 9.9 per cent, after a contraction of 2.2 per cent in FY22/23,” adding that the “manufacturing expansion was primarily supported by declining input costs, as global oil prices moderated.”
By contrast, the report said, “agriculture growth fell from 4.7 per cent in FY22/23 to 1.4 per cent in FY23/24, majorly due to below normal and uneven rainfall caused by El Nino in the second half of the fiscal year.”
Economic Growth and Labour Market Insights
India’s economic performance has been bolstered by significant public infrastructure investment and a surge in household investment in real estate. The buoyant manufacturing sector, which grew by 9.9 per cent, and resilient services activity have been pivotal in supporting overall growth, even as agriculture has lagged. The rapid economic expansion has had a positive impact on the labour market. Urban unemployment rates, particularly for women, have improved, dropping to 8.5 per cent in early FY24/25. However, youth unemployment remains a concern, standing at 17 per cent.
Yet, the report said that the “urban labour market improved between January and December 2023, particularly for women and youth. In Q3 FY23/24, the urban unemployment rate declined to its lowest levels since Q2 FY17/18, although youth unemployment remained high at 16.5 per cent.”
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its policy rate at 6.5 per cent to manage inflation, which declined from 6.7 per cent in FY22/23 to 5.4 per cent in FY23/24. The moderation in inflation, coupled with a narrowing current account deficit, has contributed to a record-high foreign exchange reserve of $670.1 billion as of early August 2024.
Medium-Term Outlook and Fiscal Projections
Looking ahead, the World Bank forecasts that India’s growth will moderate to 7 per cent in FY24/25 but remain robust through FY26/27. This optimistic outlook is supported by ongoing fiscal consolidation, which is expected to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio from 83.9 per cent in FY23/24 to 82 per cent by FY26/27. The current account deficit is projected to stabilize at around 1-1.6 per cent of GDP during this period, reflecting a strong balance of services exports and continued inflows of foreign portfolio investment.
Trade Challenges and Opportunities
The World Bank’s report highlights the critical role of trade in sustaining India’s growth trajectory. Despite recent advances in competitiveness through the National Logistics Policy and digital initiatives, India faces rising protectionism globally, including increased tariff and non-tariff barriers. These challenges have constrained the potential for trade-focused investments.
“India’s robust growth prospects, along with declining inflation, will help reduce extreme poverty,” said Auguste Tano Kouame, World Bank’s Country Director for India. “To further boost growth, India must harness its global trade potential. While it excels in IT, business services, and pharmaceuticals, there is substantial opportunity for diversifying its export basket into textiles, apparel, footwear, electronics, and green technologies.”
The report recommends a three-pronged approach to achieving the $1 trillion export target: reducing trade costs, lowering trade barriers, and deepening trade integration. It emphasizes that India’s share in global apparel exports has declined from 4 per cent in 2018 to 3 per cent in 2022, partly due to competition from Bangladesh and Vietnam, which have benefited from China’s exit from labour-intensive sectors.
Addressing Employment and Export Diversification
The World Bank report stresses the importance of focusing on labour-intensive exports to boost employment, particularly in the wake of China’s withdrawal from these sectors. The report points out that while India has made strides in high-tech exports like mobiles and services, it has lagged in low-skilled sectors such as apparel and textiles.
To address these challenges, the World Bank suggests leveraging the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) policy to attract investments in low-skilled manufacturing sectors, which offer significant job potential for young workers. Additionally, integrating more deeply into global value chains could spur innovation and productivity growth.
Trade Policy and Global Integration
India’s current trade policy reflects both liberalizing measures and a trend towards protectionism. Recent Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the UAE and Australia represent positive steps towards enhancing trade relations. However, India’s exclusion from major trade blocs like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) limits its broader trade cooperation opportunities.
The World Bank underscores the need for India to adapt its trade policies to navigate the evolving global landscape. By reducing import tariffs, improving trade facilitation, and engaging more comprehensively in global value chains, India can strengthen its export sector and improve overall economic competitiveness.
(Courtesy:owsa.in)
