When the inaugural World Test Championship (WTC) cycle kicked off in August 2019, red-hot Team India were odds-on favourite to make the final. They did so in style, topping the nine-team group league table. But not many would have foreseen New Zealand emerging as the second finalist.
Australia missed out by a whisker, being penalized 4 points for slow over-rate in the second Test against India last December, which pushed them to 3rd place behind New Zealand.
New Zealand rode their luck, and are now more than ready to give Virat Kohli’s men a run for their money in the WTC final which begins at Southampton’s Rose Bowl stadium on Friday.
Going purely by cricketing logic, India will start as underdogs in the historic Test match.
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First and foremost, New Zealand is better prepared. Kane Williamson & Co. have been in England for a month and played back-to-back Test matches against the hosts. India, on the hand, landed at Heathrow 2 weeks ago. Besides some practice sessions, the Indians have played just one intra-squad match among themselves. That’s anything but ideal preparation.
Circumstances are such in the post-COVID world that the administrators can’t be blamed for faulty scheduling. Mandatory pre-departure and post-arrival quarantine specifications left the team management with very little room to manouevre. And since the domestic competitions are in progress in the UK, no County was available to play the Indians in a warm-up game.
More significantly, New Zealand is the in-form team. They had the upper hand against England in the drawn opening Test before winning the second match comprehensively to clinch the series four days ago.
The Indians, on the other hand, last played any competitive cricket a month-and-a-half ago, when the IPL was postponed due to an alarming rise in COVID cases in India. And that, mind you, was T20 cricket, in home conditions.
In stark contrast, conditions in England in the first half of summer generally favour seam and swing bowling, making life difficult for batsmen. It’s true that Indian batsmen are no longer tigers at home and mice abroad, but the moving ball will test the likes of Rohit Sharma, Shubman Gill, Cheteshwar Pujara, Kohli, Ajinkya Rahane and Rishabh Pant.
The numbers don’t tell a great story either. While Kohli averages a modest 35 in 10 Test matches he has played in England, both Pujara and Rahane are averaging below 30 in England.
If there is a cloud cover with rain in the air, or some moisture in the surface, New Zealand can bank on their skilled fast-bowling combination of Tim Southee and Trent Boult to make the ball talk. They also have that giant of a pacer called Kyle Jamieson, who gives the Kiwi attack an extra dimension. The Indians are fully aware of what the 6-foot-8-inch tall Jamieson is capable of, having struggled to handle his pace and disconcerting bounce in the two-match series in New Zealand in February-March 2020. It was Jamieson’s debut series, and his nine wickets helped New Zealand beat India in both Test matches.
Team India have an experienced bowling attack, which has stood them in good stead over the last 4-5 years in overseas Test matches. Jasprit Bumrah, Ishant Sharma, Mohammed Shami and Ravichandran Ashwin have contributed hugely towards India notching up victories on foreign soil consistently, which was a rarity some years ago.
But the selectors may have missed a trick by not including Bhuvaneshwar Kumar in the squad. Bhuvi, who has recovered from an injury, is a genuine swing bowler and might have been more suited to English conditions than Ishant. Strangely, Bhuvi has been picked in the Indian squad for the ODIs and T20Is tour of Sri Lanka, when he should have been on the plane to England.
While New Zealand may start as favourites in this landmark Test, they won’t make the mistake of underestimating the opponents. The cricketing world was left wide-eyed as an injury-ravaged, half-strength Indian team beat Australia Down Under 2-1 five months ago. They followed it up with a come-from-behind 3-1 series win at home against England.
The emergence of Rishabh Pant as a matchwinner with the bat has undoubtedly bolstered the team’s strength. But in a contest that is likely to be dominated by fast bowlers, it will boil down to which batting unit adapts better. If India are to harbour hopes of being crowned World Test champions, three of their top five batsmen will have to get big scores.
