Kolkata: Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kharagpur have developed a system to predict the spread of coronavirus cases in the country.
The researchers said the study reveals that the disease is going to stay in the country for many more months.
“Our study indicates that India is yet to achieve a steady pattern in the spread of the disease. It is unlikely to get rid of COVID-19 before the end of September 2020,” said Prof Abhijit Das of the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, IIT Kharagpur, who has developed the logistic model.
Prof Das informed that the data used for predicting the spread of COVID-19 covers the entire country and the most affected states including Maharashtra, Tami Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh, NDTV reported.
“The [information] uses only the daily infection counts available in the public domain without accessing sensitive information pertaining to medical records or contact-tracing data for a large fraction of the population. Despite that, the prediction curves show remarkably good fitting with the past data, and can be used for future planning,” he added.
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IIT Kharagpur Director Prof Virendra Kumar Tewari said the experimental model will enable decision-making pertaining to healthcare, economy and academics.
“People have been living in an uncertain black box without the knowledge about which way life is going to turn and how to plan their activities. A study like this based on a clear statistical model will enable them to understand and plan their way forward,” he added.
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