Consensus Among Weather Models On Possible Movement & Landfall Of Cyclone Mocha; Check Here

Bhubaneswar: With the well-marked low pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal & adjoining South Andaman Sea likely to intensify into a Depression by this evening, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said that increased westerly winds are likely to prevail over this region with easterly winds over central and north Bay of Bengal during the next 5-6 days.

“The enhanced westerly winds and  Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO are likely to collectively contribute towards enhancement of convective activity and hence cyclogenesis over Southeast and adjoining Central Bay of Bengal during this period,” it said in its Tropical Weather Outlook.

According to the MeT office, the Depression is likely to turn into a cyclonic storm over Southeast Bay of Bengal & adjoining areas of East Central Bay of Bengal & Andaman Sea on May 10. The cyclone will continue to strengthen further, possibly intensifying into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS), which has 3-minute average maximum sustained wind speeds between 119-165 kmph, by May 12 while moving north-northwestwards after which it will change course and turn north-northeast towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts.

Once this system intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it will be called Cyclone Mocha, a name suggested by Yemen after the Red Sea port city, which is known to have introduced coffee to the world over 500 years ago.

Though the IMD is yet to make prediction on its intensity and landfall, the system is expected to eventually make landfall between Bangladesh and Myanmar around May 14. “Guidance models like IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, ECMWF and IMD MME are indicating initial north-northwestwards movement till May 11 and gradual north-northeastwards recurvature thereafter towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts. Today, there is consensus among these models, IMD GSF: landfall near 22.0N/92.5 around 14/12 UTC, ECMWF: 22.5N/91.7E around 14/18 UTC and IMD MME: 20.7N/92.5E around 14/03 UTC,” the Outlook added.

The ECMWF model’s track forecast has shifted more easterly, which means the cyclone’s impact on Odisha may now be less severe than previously predicted.

Meanwhile, the weather office has suggested regulation of tourism and offshore activities and shipping near Andaman and Nicobar Islands and over the sea areas of southeast and central Bay of Bengal till May 12. Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is likely over southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining Andaman Sea on May 9 and increase upto 90 kmph in the subsequent days.