Bhubaneswar: Odisha has been experiencing a scorching summer, with extreme heatwave and unbearably high temperatures over the past fortnight.
It’s the longest spell in nine years, according to Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre director Manorama Mohanty.
The bad news is, the possibility of cooler days and rainfall is not too bright this month.
According to India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) outlook for temperature and rainfall during May 2024, above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except northeast India, some areas of northwest and central India and adjoining areas of northeast peninsular India.
Above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some areas of northwest India, Indo-Gangetic plains, central India and most parts of northeast India.
In Interior Odisha, the number of heatwave days has been predicted to be above normal by 2-4 days, along with parts of Rajasthan, east Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradeshm some parts of Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, north interior Karnataka and Telangana and isolated pockets of north Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh.
As for rainfall, the average in the country in May is most likely to be normal — 91-109% of long period average (LPA).
Though most parts of northwest India, some parts of central, peninsular and northeast India are likely to get normal to above-normal rainfall, it’s likely to be below-normal in remaining parts of the country.
The outlook for Odisha is below-normal in several parts of the state, and chances of normal rainfall in some areas.
As El Niño conditions are currently present over equatorial Pacific region, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue to weaken across most parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest MMCFS (Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System) forecast suggests that these El Niño conditions are likely to turn into neutral conditions in the beginning of monsoon season.
In addition to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the Pacific, other factors such as Indian Ocean SSTs also influence the climate in India. Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest climate models indicate that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.
