Arvind Kejriwal resigned on Tuesday and Delhi had a new chief minister in Atishi. She is no small fry. She is a Rhodes scholar and Oxford University alumnus. Legislator from Kalkaji and an education activist, she managed 14 portfolios while senior leaders were behind bars. Kejriwal trusts her to navigate the choppy political waters for a few months till the elections take place in early 2025.
That’s the news, but the story is Kejriwal and his next move. Speculation is rife on the circumstances of his release on bail in the liquor policy case and its possible impact on the elections in Haryana and elsewhere. Is his release the result of a deal with the BJP? Does the latter, unable to counter resurgent Congress led by Rahul Gandhi in Haryana, want the Aam Aadmi Party to play the spoiler? Going by his utterances in recent public meetings, it doesn’t appear so. He is a smart politician. He can easily see through actions to detect the intent.
The BJP has reason to feel uneasy about him. Nobody has savaged on the delicate ego of its top leadership more than Kejriwal. His party consistently punches above its weight in electoral politics. In Delhi assembly elections the AAP has handed it repeated humiliating defeats. The persistent effort to not allow the Delhi government to function normally has not worked. Nor has the attempts to break the party, nor the effort to destabilise it by putting its top leaders behind the bars.
For Kejriwal, the political equations stand a bit different at this point. His relation with the Congress has always been less than comfortable. AAP was born out of the massive anti-corruption movement against the Congress-led UPA government. It has pushed the Grand Old Party into a poor third place in Delhi. The traditional vote bank of the Congress has shifted to the AAP. In Punjab too, it has hurt the former. In Gujarat assembly elections, Kejriwal’s party secured a respectable 13 percent vote share, most of it coming from the routine Congress social constituencies. At a time people were looking for an alternative to the rudderless Congress, AAP had emerged as a potential choice.
However, the Congress appears to be getting its act together and reviving under Rahul Gandhi. The party is regaining ground among the disprivileged sections and finding traction across the demographic divisions. It has also placed itself in the leadership position in a coalition of opposition parties in states. This is a potential roadblock to the AAP’s expansion plans.
Kejriwal has to navigate his way between the BJP and the Congress. With one he can afford to be in open confrontation, with the other he has to move carefully. He cannot be seen to be not siding with anti-BJP forces.
The best option for him now is to focus on Delhi, AAP’s base, and hold on to it. He cannot take Delhi for granted, because once it’s gone, the damage to the party would be enormous. It might even land it in an existential crisis. The Congress emerging stronger in the capital state won’t augur well for the AAP. Any bad blood in Haryana and other states between the two is likely to spill on to Delhi.
It’s complicated to say the least. And Atishi doesn’t come into it much. She will be chief minister as a stopgap arrangement. She will do well to garner goodwill points for AAP in a limited period. However, it’s Kejriwal’s moves that would dominate the headlines in the coming months.
(By Arrangements With Perspective Bytes)