Bhubaneswar: With a cyclonic circulation forming over Central Andaman Sea, the regional centre of India Meteorological Department (IMD) here has warned of heavy rainfall at isolated places in Odisha on Saturday (October 19).
The system is likely to intensify into low pressure area over Eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea on October 21. Thereafter, it is likely to move northwestwards and intensify further into a depression around October 23, the weather agency said in its midday bulletin.
According private forecaster Skymet, the cyclonic circulation over Andaman Sea may intensify into a low-pressure area over Andaman Sea by October 22. “Notwithstanding the low accuracy of weather models after a period of 4-5 days, there are enough signs available for further intensification of this system. The low-pressure will move northwest to central parts of BoB and intensify to a depression on October 23. As it appears, the weather system may be heading for the coastline of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. In that case, only limited sea travel will be available with the depression for further intensification. The truncated stretch may only allow it to pick up the initial category of storm and therefore unlikely to become too harsh to strike the coastline,” it said.
Analysis by international meteorological agencies, however, indicate that a low-pressure is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal by October 21-23, turn into a depression by October 23 and develop into a full-blown cyclone between October 23-24. The European Union Weather Forecast Model on October 16 indicated a 70%-80% chance of cyclogenesis. “Most weather forecast models, including those of the United States and the European Union, have indicated the possibility of a cyclone forming in the Bay of Bengal between October 21-26,” meteorologist Mustafa Kamal Palash told The Business Standard.
The cyclone, once formed, might make landfall in coastal areas of India and Bangladesh between October 24-26.
During the landfall, the cyclone is expected to move with an estimated maximum wind speed of 100 to 120 kmph if it hits the coast of Barishal and Khulna divisions of the Bay of Bengal and 130 to 150 kmph if it hits the coast of Odisha, the report added.
Taking to his X handle, senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls wrote: “A tropical low will form near the Andaman & Nicobar Islands early next week & can strengthen to a cyclonic storm before threatening the Odisha or WestBengal coast late next week.”
This cyclone is likely to be named Dana, a name given by Qatar.
On October 18, the IMD said that there is a moderate chance of cyclogenesis (formation of depression) during the next 120-144 hours.
A clearer picture is likely to emerge by October 20-21. “Though its path and intensification can be confirmed once the low pressure area forms, isolated places in the state are likely to experience heavy rainfall between October 23 and 25 under its influence,” said Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre director Manorama Mohanty.
The IMD has warned of squally weather with wind speed 35 kmph to 45 kmph gusting to 55 kmphis likely to prevail over Eastcentral and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal on October 21-22. Squally weather with wind speed 40 kmph to 50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely to prevail over many parts of Eastcentral Bay of Bengal and wind speed of 35 kmph to 45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph over most parts of Central Bay Of Bengal and Southern parts of North Bay of Bengal on October 23.
Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea in these regions during this period.
RAIN FORECAST FOR ODISHA
On October 19, heavy rainfall (7 to 11cm) may occur at isolated places in Jajpur, Bhadrak and Balasore districts. Thunderstorm with lightning is also likely at isolated places in Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Khurda, Nayagarh, Ganjam, Gajapati, Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Dhenkanal, Angul, Kandhamal, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri.
The MeT office has also issued orange warning of moderate thunderstorm with lightning and light to moderate rain for Keonjhar, Dhenkanal, Jajpur and Kendrapada till 5.10 pm. Yellow warning of light to moderate thunderstorm with lightning and light to moderate rain has also been sounded for Nayagarh, Nabarangpur, Kandhamal, Rayagada, Ganjam, Nayagarh, Gajapati and Koraput districts. People have been advised to keep a watch on the weather and accordingly move to safer places to protect themselves from lightning strikes during this period.
Yellow warning of thunderstorm with lightning continues for isolated places in Puri, Khurda, Nayagarh, Ganjam and Gajapati districts on October 20.
While there is no weather warning during the next two days, heavy rainfall (7 to 11cm) may resume at isolated places in Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Puri and Ganjam districts on October 24.
The national bulletin, however, mentions about isolated heavy rainfall in Odisha on October, 19, 23, 24 and 25.
WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR
Last year, two cyclones formed in October on either side of the coastline. Tej, an extremely severe cyclone, took shape over the central-south Arabian Sea and made landfall on Yemen on October 24, 2023. Similarly, very severe cyclonic storm Hamoon emerged in Bay of Bengal and struck Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, on October 25.
