Chennai: Besides a possible political earthquake in West Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) may be unseated by the BJP after 15 years, the latest round of Assembly elections could throw up a shake-up in Tamil Nadu.
The Axis My India exit poll, one of India’s most respected pollsters, has projected a major breakthrough for actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
While TVK is projected to win between 98 and 120 seats in the 234-member Assembly, the ruling DMK-led alliance is estimated to win 92 to 110 seats, and the AIADMK-led alliance 22 to 32 seats, as per the Axis My India polls.
However, the other exit polls placed the DMK alliance ahead, relegating newcomers TVK to third place.
People’s Pulse survey projects the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance at 125 to 145 seats, comfortably above the majority mark. It estimates the AIADMK-led NDA at 65 to 80 seats and TVK at 18 to 24 seats.
P-MARQ gave DMK 125 to 145 seats, AIADMK 65 to 85 and TVK 16 to 26 seats.
The Matrize exit poll predicted DMK alliance to bag 122 to 132 seats, AIADMK combine 87 to 110 seats and TVK 10 to 12 seats.
People’s Insight estimated DMK will get 120 to 140 seats, AIADMK 60 to 70 and TVK 30 to 40 seats.
The predictions for Assam is crystal clear, with all exit polls giving the BJP at least a two-thirds majority in the 126-member state Assembly.
If those numbers hold true, the Himanta Biswa Sarma-led saffron party will storm to victory for the third straight term.
As for Keralam, the CPI(M)-led LDF looks to be on the way out, according to the exit poll projections. That’s the only good news for Congress, at least till Wednesday.
Axis My India, Matrize, People’s Pulse, P-Marq and JVC have all predicted a majority for Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).
With the majority mark being 71, most of the polls have given the UDF around 75-80 seats. The best scenario for LDF is 65 as per the predictions, while the BJP-led NDA could win 3 to 5 seats at the most.
In the Union territory of Puducherry, the NDA is projected to get majority in the 30-seat Assembly.
The actual numbers will be known on May 4, when counting of votes will be taken up in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Keralam and Puducherry.
