Bhubaneswar: Severe cyclonic storm Asani was about 450 km southeast of Visakhapatnam at 11.30 on Monday and it is very likely to move northwestwards till May 10 before recurving north-northeastwards and gradually weakening into a cyclonic storm during the next 36 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) tweeted.
Though there is consensus among various numerical models and IMD director-general Mrutunjay Mohapatra too has confirmed that the storm is unlikely to make landfall in Odisha or Andhra Pradesh but recurve short of coastline and run parallel to the coast in the sea, senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls of Accuweather said that a “slower turn towards the northeast could result in the storm striking the coast near the Andhra Pradesh/Odisha border”.
Check his post:
Severe Cyclonic Storm #Asani will track NW into Tuesday before turning NE & weakening. Storm can brush NE coast of #AndhraPradesh & coastal #Odisha with heavy rain & gusty winds. A slower turn NE could result in the storm striking the coast near the Andhra Pradesh/Odisha border. pic.twitter.com/CKGD9pVmji
— Jason Nicholls (@jnmet) May 9, 2022
According to private forecaster Skymet, the closest position is likely to be abeam bordering areas of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha, nearly 100-150 km away from the shore.
Since the tropical storms have a history of being notorious, Skymet has advised against lowering the guard till definite signs of clearance appear on the horizon. “The tropical storm Asani will continue tracking towards Andhra Pradesh coast and possibly come dangerously close, albeit with weakened zeal. Extreme caution needs to be exercised for the next 48 hours,” it said.
Squally winds and heavy rains are likely in Kakinada, Tuni, Vizag, Kalingapatnam, Ganjam, Gajapati, Gopalpur, Jagatsinghpur and Balasore, it added.
The IMD has also forecast heavy rainfall in coastal Odisha between Tuesday and Thursday.
YELLOW WARNING
May 10
Heavy rainfall (7-11 cm) is very likely to occur at one or two places in Gajapati, Ganjam and Puri districts.
May 11
Heavy rainfall (7-11 cm) is very likely to occur at one or two places in Ganjam, Khurda, Puri, Jagatsinghpur and Cuttack districts.
May 12
Heavy rainfall (7-11 cm) is very likely to occur at one or two places in Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Cuttack, Kendrapada, Bhadrak and Balasore districts.
With a 7-11 cm rainfall forecast in parts of coastal Odisha, 15 blocks in Ganjam, Puri, Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapada districts are likely to be affected due to the downpour.
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is also likely along and off Odisha coast on May 11 and 12.
Distant warning signal 2 (asking ships not to come near the coast) has been hoisted in all ports in Odisha in view of the approaching severe cyclone. Very high sea conditions are likely to prevail over westcentral and adjoining south Bay of Bengal and fishermen have been asked not to venture out in the region for the next couple of days, the MeT office said.
