Bhubaneswar: While India Meteorological Department (IMD) is yet to forecast path and intensity of Cyclone ‘Dana’, which is likely to form over Eastcentral Bay of Bengal around October 23 and reach northwest Bay of Bengal off Odisha-West Bengal coasts the following morning, two major weather models on Sunday indicated that the system may make landfall near Puri.
The IMD-GFS and ECMWF models indicate that the system may cross near Puri on October 25. The NCUM (G) model, on the other hand, shows that the cyclone may cross near Bhubaneswar, according to Tropical Weather Outlook issued by IMD.
Also Read: Odisha To Face Brunt Of Possible Cyclone ‘Dana’, Wind Speed@100-120 Kmph By Oct 24: IMD DG
EXPECTED LANDFALL AS PER WEATHER MODELS
According to IMD-GFS model, a low-pressure area over the eastern Bay of Bengal on October 21 at 00 UTC (5 hours 30 minutes behind the Indian Standard Time) will intensify into a depression over the Eastcentral Bay of Bengal the same day at 12 UTC. It is expected to gain strength and take shape of a cyclonic storm over the Eastcentral Bay of Bengal on October 23 at 00 UTC and cross near Puri as a very severe cyclonic storm on October 25 at 00 UTC.
The ECMWF model indicate formation of a low-pressure area over Eastcentral Bay of Bengal on October 22 at 03 UTC. It will develop into a depression over Eastcentral Bay of Bengal on October 23 at 00 UTC and intensify into a cyclonic storm over the same region on the same day at 09 UTC. The system is likely to cross near Puri coast on October 25 at 06 UTC.
The NCUM (G) model indicates a low-pressure area over Eastcentral Bay of Bengal on October 20 at 12 UTC, further intensification into a depression on October 21 at 06 UTC. The system will turn into a cyclonic storm over the Westcentral Bay of Bengal by October 23 at 06 UTC and cross near Bhubaneswar on October 24 at 12 UTC.
The NCEP-GFS model shows a low-pressure area over the North Andaman Sea on October 20 at 12 UTC, developing into a depression over the Eastcentral Bay of Bengal on October 21 at 00 UTC. It will intensify into a cyclonic storm over Eastcentral Bay of Bengal on October 22 at 00 UTC and cross West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts on October 24 at 06 UTC as a very severe cyclonic storm or a higher category system.
The IMD MME model indicates a low-pressure area over North Andaman Sea on October 2, its further intensification into a depression on October 22 at 00 UTC, and a cyclonic storm on October 22 at 12 UTC. It is expected to move northwestwards towards northern Odisha and cross the coast around October 22 at 01 UTC.
IMD FORECAST
The national forecast has so far predicted likely formation of a low-pressure area over Eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea during the next 24 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression by October 22 morning and into a cyclonic storm by October 23 over Eastcentral Bay of Bengal. Thereafter, it is very likely to move northwestwards and reach northwest Bay of Bengal off Odisha-West Bengal coasts by October 24 morning.
Red warning of isolated heavy to very heavy falls (7 to 20cm) with isolated extremely heavy rainfall (>20cm) & thunderstorm with lightning has been sounded for isolated places in Puri, Khurda, Ganjam and Jagatsinghpur districts on October 24. There is also an orange warning of heavy to very heavy rainfall (7 to 20cm) along with thunderstorm with lightning for isolated places in Kendrapada, Cuttack, Nayagarh, Kandhamal and Gajapati. Yellow warning of heavy rainfall (7 to 11cm) & thunderstorm with lightning has also been issued for isolated places in Bhadrak, Balasore, Jajpur, Angul, Dhenkanal, Boudh, Kalahandi, Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Mayurbhanj and Keonjhar districts.
Also Read: IMD Issues Red Warning Of Very Heavy Rain As Odisha Braces For Cyclone ‘Dana’
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 gusting to 60 kmph is very likely to commence over North west adjoining West central Bay of Bengal, along and off Odisha coast, from October 23 evening. It would gradually increase becoming gale wind speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph from Oct0ber 24 night till October 25 morning, it further stated.
ODISHA”S TRYST WITH OCTOBER CYCLONES
Notably, Odisha has a history of being battered by cyclones emerging from the Bay of Bengal in October. The super cyclone of 1999 had hit the coast near Paradip with wind speed of 250 kmph on October 29, leaving behind an unprecedented trail of devastation. Phalini had made landfall near Gopalpur, the night of October 12, 2013. Odisha saw two casualties as Hudhud hit Visakhapatnam at noon on October 12, 2014. About 3 lakh people in five coastal districts of Ganjam, Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Khurda and Kendrapada were evacuated as ‘very severe cyclonic storm Titli’ made its landfall by crossing north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coast (near Palasa, Srikakulam district) to the southwest of Gopalpur early morning on October 11, 2018, with wind speed touching close to 149 kmph.
Fani, a May cyclone, had tore through Puri in 2019.
Also Read: Cyclone ‘Dana’ To Reach Odisha Coast By October 24; Know Who Named It & Meaning
