Bhubaneswar: While heavy rainfall has begun in the Andaman Islands under the influence of a cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal, overseas weather agencies have forecast that the system would intensify into a cyclonic storm and hit the Odisha coast either on the night of October 16 or the following morning.
According to the forecast by the Czechoslovakia-based private weather agency Windy and the India-based private weather agency Skymet, the cyclonic circulation over the North Andaman Sea and neighbourhood will intensify into a cyclonic storm.
The Windy forecast has claimed that the landfall of the cyclonic storm will be between Puri and Paradip either on the night of October 16 or in the morning the next day. Under its influence, there will be extremely heavy rainfall in the north and central coastal Odisha and West Bengal.
The Skymet Weather Services said that there is a possibility for the low-pressure area formed over the South China Sea to merge with the one which is likely to form over the North Andaman sea and neighbourhood. This will further strengthen the system and it may concentrate into a cyclonic storm.
If the system intensifies in a cyclone, it will be called Jawad, a name proposed by Saudi Arabia.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also confirmed that be it a low pressure or a cyclonic storm, the system will make landfall in coastal Odisha.
Director, Meteorological Centre, Bhubaneswar, HR Biswas informed that the cyclonic circulation over the North Andaman Sea and neighbourhood is most likely to intensify into a low-pressure area over the same region during the next 24 hours (October 11). However, the intensity of the cyclonic storm and its movement can be predicted only 24 hours after the formation of the low pressure.
“As the low-pressure area will remain over the sea for 4-5 days, a clear picture about its further intensification will emerge in the subsequent 48 hours on October 13,” Biswas said.
Confirming that the cyclonic storm will head towards the Odisha coast, well-known meteorologist Dr Surendranath Pasupalak said that the exact model of the system will emerge between 24 and 48 hours.
Former director of the Meteorological Centre, Bhubaneswar and director of the Centre for Environment and Climate (CEC) of the SOA University Dr Sarat Chandra Sahu said the dimension of the cyclonic storm will be known by October 12.
Maintaining that the present condition of the Bay of Bengal and the atmospheric condition of the land surface is conducive for the formation of a cyclonic storm, he said that the movement and intensification of the cyclonic storm, the exact location of its landfall and its impact on Odisha and Andhra Pradesh can only be said after the formation of a low-pressure area.
“Whether there will be a cyclonic storm or extremely heavy rainfall, it will take place either on October 16 or the following day,” Sahu pointed out.
