Bhubaneswar: The daily COVID caseload in Odisha is likely to drop to about 739 by July 15, according to a recent projection by IIT-Kanpur.
The state has been witnessing a drop in new infections and the test positivity rate (TPR) for the past few weeks. It saw 2803 more people testing positive for the virus in the last 24 hours. The TPR stood at 3.75% on Monday.
Also Read: Odisha Logs 2803 New COVID Cases, TPR Drops Below 4%
According to the model, the daily cases are currently in the decline phase. The effective reproduction number based on the latest data is 0.9. At the current decay rate, Odisha is expected to have about 739 daily cases in two weeks.
The daily count of infections has reduced by 73.6% compared to its value at its peak. The active case has also gone down by 71.8% from its peak value of 98991 on May 23. The current case fatality rate based on average daily data is 1.5%, it added.
The last 24 hours saw the highest 52 COVID deaths in a single day.
Also Read: Odisha Reports Highest Single-Day COVID Toll Of 52; Nine From Khurda
Earlier in the day, Director, Health Services, Bijay Mohapatra told the media that the trend in deaths is likely to continue for a few more days. “There are about 450 patients in the ICU and 55-60 patients on ventilators. About 30 per cent of the ICU patients are shifted to the ventilators. The probable fatality rate of the patients kept on ventilators is about 90-92 per cent. As long as there are critical patients, deaths will continue,” he added.
Also Read: 3-Pronged Approach To Tackle 3rd Wave In Odisha; COVID Deaths Remain A Concern
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a consistent TPR of less than five per cent for at least two weeks can be interpreted as the pandemic situation being under control. A low TPR value also indicates that restrictions are expected to be eased soon.
Odisha has been reporting a TPR of less than 5% for the last six days.
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