[Explainer] Decoding China’s Silence On Iran Amid US-Israel Strikes, Is Beijing In A Fix?

Beijing/Tehran: Amid the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, China’s energy ties with Tehran have gained attention. These strikes on Iran, according to experts, threaten the oil arteries that power the Chinese economy. According to reports, about 44% of China’s oil imports come from the broader Middle East and any disruption in the Strait of Homruz— one of the world’s most important energy corridors—hits Bejing’s energy security strategy.

Why is Strait of Homruz significant?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. It connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, opening into the wider ocean. Historically, it has been quite a significant route for China. In the past, goods such as ceramics, ivory, silk, and textiles moved from China through this region. In the modern times, supertankers carrying oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE pass through this narrow route. And, the energy supply goes to the Asian markets, primarily. Coming to China, it remains the major consumer of Iranian oil.

The oil connect between Beijing and Tehran

According to a 2025 data from Kpler, China buys more than 80 per cent of Iran’s shipped oil. In fact, the crude oil from Iran has limited buyers because of US sanctions. The US had imposed such sanctions to curb funding for Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Kpler data claimed China purchased an average of 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil last year. This amounts to about 13.4% of the 10.27 million barrels per day it imported by sea.

Decoding the oil consumption in Beijing

According to reports, there are independent Chinese refiners, known as ‘teapots’, in the Shandong province. These refiners are the primary buyers of Iranian crude oil as Tehran offers huge discounts. But recently these refiners have faced weak domestic demand for refined products, claimed reports. Since 2018, the state-owned oil companies in China have refrained from purchasing Iranian crude oil, according to media reports. But prior to the escalation, China had shifted its buying strategy and opted for an import mix. A report published by Iran International last month claimed that Beijing was apparently replacing disrupted Venezuelan oil shipments with Russian crude. It reportedly didn’t increase its purchase from Iran, despite Tehran’s discounted offers.

According to a report published  by shipping analyst Vortexa, the share of Russian oil in China’s total seaborne crude imports rose to 18% in February, compared to 11% last November. The report claims that nearly 90% of incoming Russian volumes were delivered into Shandong and fully absorbed by private refiners. The state-owned Sinopec has reportedly pulled back from Russian purchases since November.

The shift began after a maritime blockade targeting Venezuelan tankers and the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by US commandos on January 3. This had interrupted deliveries to China and led several Chinese refiners to halt purchases.

What has been Beijing’s diplomatic stand?

Beijing has condemned the attacks on Tehran and called for a ceasefire. But it has stopped short of any economic retaliation. According to a NDTV report quoting Balakrishnan, co founder of Avellon Intelligence, Tehran’s retaliation could be “a historic strategic blunder.” Besides confronting a superior military coalition, Tehran is also jeopardising its pivotal role as in China’s energy and geopolitical architecture.

Did Iran narrow its diplomatic space and complicated China’s situation?

By targeting US assets on Arab soil, Tehran has isolated itself from potential neutral parties. Tehran seemed to have given impetus to a regional alignment toward the US Israel axis, according to experts. That shift narrows Iran’s diplomatic space. Experts believe it also complicates China’s balancing act in the region.

What did Iran do to reduce its immediate vulnerability?

Iran may have anticipated such escalation. According to another Vortexa report, Iran had increased its crude oil exports ahead of the escalation, reducing its sudden interruption of supplies. “February crude exports averaged approximately 2.10 mbd, near multi-year highs. This reflects accelerated liftings, primarily to China and a greater share of barrels placed into floating storage – including a buildup of volumes near Kharg Island in mid-February,” the report states. Iran has thus monetised production early. Now, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have blocked the Strait of Homruz amid the escalation. An official from the European Union’s naval mission Aspides, as quoted by Reuters, said vessels had been receiving VHF transmission from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards saying “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz”.