Bhubaneswar: Jay Dholakia’s induction into the BJP ahead of the November 11 by-election to Nuapada Assembly constituency, was a ‘I have seen this before’ moment in Odisha politics.
The Bijepur bypoll in 2018 witnessed a drastic change in the political equation in the constituency when Congress’ sitting MLA Subal Sahu’s widow Rita Sahu joined the BJD and became its candidate. The move was seen as an attempt by the then ruling party to cash in on the sympathy factor. The family of the three-time MLA from Bijepur also tried to justify the switch as the ‘last wish’ of Subal Sahu, who they claimed wanted to contest the 2019 Assembly polls from the constituency as a BJD candidate having started his political career with the regional party.
This came as a body blow for the Congress, which had been struggling to stay relevant in state politics since losing power in 2000.
Back to 2025. Jay is the son of sitting BJD MLA and former minister Rajendra Dholakia, whose untimely death necessitated the bypoll, and the BJP is now the ruling party in the state. The BJD led by Naveen Patnaik, who ruled Odisha for 24 years, too has been facing internal crisis with leaders openly expressing resentment over its style of functioning since its electoral debacle in 2024 twin polls.
And with Jay on its side, the BJP is hoping to wrest the seat from BJD by riding on the sympathy wave, which the Lotus party had won twice in 2000 and 2014 with former state president Basanta Panda as its candidate.
Speculation about Jay’s political shift began when he and his mother invited the Chief Minister Mohan Majhi to attend Rajendra Dholakia’s memorial function on September 21 in Nuapada. Much to the surprise of the Opposition, particularly the BJD, the CM not only accepted the invitation but also visited the Dholakia residence to offer condolences.
During the joining ceremony on Saturday, Majhi said Jay will complete the unfinished tasks of his father, who had grand aspirations for Nuapada but could not realise them due to restrictions and interference from extra-constitutional authorities during his tenure in the BJD government, dropping a hint about his candidature from the seat.
Though the BJD has not formally announced its candidate from Nuapada, senior vice president Debi Parsad Mishra had subtly indicated that the party would field Dholakia’s son as its candidate.
Jay’s sudden entry also altered the equation in BJP, where Jadumani Panigrahi, who contested as an independent in 2019; Sonia Jain, chairperson of Khariar Road NAC; former state BJP president and ex-MP Basanta Panda and his son Abhinandan Panda, the party’s 2024 nominee from the seat, were widely seen as frontrunners for the party ticket.
Just as the BJD did then, the Lotus party too has managed to quell any possible dissent over this decision. The CM, who is said to have personally taken the initiative to bring Jay into the party fold, expressed gratitude to the former Kalahandi MP and ex-BJP state president Basanta Panda for supporting the decision.
As irony would have it, the BJD now calls this a classic case of horse trading while accusing Jay of having sold himself to the saffron party.
Triangular contest intensifies
This by-elections assumes significance for Mohan Majhi, who quickly unveiled a Rs 1,100 crore package for Nuapada hours before the poll schedule announcement, as a victory would consolidate his authority and reaffirm his government’s strength.
Historically, by-elections have favoured ruling parties. This apart, the Balasore bypoll, in which newcomer Swarup Das of BJD reclaimed the seat from departed BJP MLA’s son Manas Kumar Dutta in 2020, demonstrated that sympathy alone is not enough to ensure victory.
The Congress has already named a formidable contender in Ghasiram Majhi, which was evident in the 2024 assembly election when he got more than 50,000 votes as an Independent to finish second behind Dholakia. The then OPCC president Sarat Patnaik had finished fourth. The Congress is eyeing a win in the bypoll with Ghasiram’s 50,000 plus 15,000 party votes, which Sarat Patnaik got in the last elections.
Meanwhile, the Political Affairs Committee (PAC) of the BJD went into a huddle last evening and deliberated on the party’s Plan B for the by-election in light of the latest political developments. Sources indicate that the regional party is figuring out if any other member of the Dholakia family will be keen to contest the bypoll to undermine Jay’s chances. Though Rajendra Dholakia’s wife Kalpana is the top choice, it is unlikely for her to join the fray and harm her son’s prospects.
On the other hand, the Congress is also accusing the BJD of indulging in the same horse trading by trying to entice its Nuapada candidate to its fold.
Whatever the outcome, the changing political dynamics have raised the stakes of the Nuapada by-election.
