New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the possible development of a fresh cyclonic circulation or low-pressure area over the eastcentral Bay of Bengal around May 28–29.
According to North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis, this system is expected to move gradually in a west-northwestward direction. The NCEP GFS model further supports this scenario, indicating the formation of a low-pressure area over the eastcentral Bay of Bengal around June 2.
Several models, including the IMD’s MME-CFSV2, are suggesting a 30–40% probability of cyclogenesis over the eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas during the first week (22.05.2026-28.05.2026). The ECMM model also indicates a 20–30% probability of cyclogenesis over the North Andaman Sea and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal. Ensemble member tracks from the models largely show the system forming over the eastcentral Bay of Bengal and North Andaman Sea region, with most tracks moving north or north-northeastwards towards Bangladesh and Myanmar coasts. Only a few tracks suggest movement towards the West Bengal and Odisha coasts.
Notably, the probability indicated by these models is significantly higher than the climatological probability of 8–10% for cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean during this period.
Additionally, the outlook shows a positive precipitation anomaly extending over the entire Bay of Bengal during the second week, along with increased rainfall likelihood over several parts of central and southern India, the Himalayan region, and northeastern states.
The prediction comes as Odisha continues to reel under severe heatwave conditions. Bhubaneswar recorded its first official heatwave day of the season on Thursday with a temperature of 42.2°C, soaring 4.5°C above normal, leaving residents complaining of uneasiness and heat stress amid high humidity. While the neighboring city of Cuttack also endured scorching heat, recording a temperature of 40.2°C that day, its residents received much-needed relief as nor’wester rains lashed the city in the evening.
Jharsuguda sizzled at 45.5°C under heatwave conditions for the second consecutive day, while six other places recorded temperatures above 44°C, including Sambalpur and Balangir at 44.6°C each, Hirakud and Titilagarh at 44.5°C each, Sonepur at 44.3°C, and Boudh at 44.2°C.
