New Delhi: India’s trade surplus with the United States could exceed USD 90 billion annually, underpinned by a sharp rise in Indian exports following a recently advanced India-US trade deal. This has been claimed in a SBI report, as cited in various media reports.
Indian exporters may increase their exports of the top 15 items to the US by around USD 97 billion in a year, according to the report cited by Deccan Herald. Including the remaining items, the export potential may easily cross the USD 100 billion mark annually, the report adds.
Exports and Surplus Growth
– The report describes the decline in US tariffs on many Indian products as a “golden opportunity” for exporters to capture a greater share of the American market.
– India’s existing trade surplus with the US stood at USD 40.9 billion in FY25 and about USD 26 billion for April–December FY26, indicating an upward trend even before the full effect of tariff cuts.
– With the export boost combined with structured increases in imports, SBI estimates the surplus could top USD 90 billion annually once the deal takes effect — more than doubling current levels.
Imports and Tariff Reductions
The report also highlights potential gains on the import side. India has agreed to eliminate or reduce tariffs on US industrial goods and a broad range of food and agricultural products, which could open the door to increased US exports to India.
In certain categories — such as almonds, where the US already accounts for roughly 90 per cent of India’s imports — tariff cuts could also produce foreign exchange savings of USD 100–150 million, with additional savings from reduced duties on other products estimated at around USD 3 billion.
The SBI report projects that the trade deal’s overall economic impact could be substantial, estimating a net positive effect of around 1.1 per cent on India’s GDP.
