Who has the advantage in Jharkhand – the NDA or the INDIA bloc? For a state that has never given a clear mandate to a single party since 2000, the year the state was formed, any prediction is likely to be fraught with risk. Many variables are at play here – tribal and non-tribal voters, family feuds, women, infiltrators, insider-outsider, the rise of a new party, defections and independents among others. Even a minor shift anywhere can swing the results either way.
It’s thus foolhardy to make any extrapolation from earlier parliamentary and assembly election results. Tribals, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha’s primary vote bank, constituting 26 percent of the state’s population offer the INDIA bloc some advantage in 28 reserved seats of the total 81. But the rival BJP has neutralised it by cultivating the non-tribal voters. At close to 34 percent, it had the highest vote share in 2019, compared to JMM’s 19 percent. However, decent performance by the Congress and the RJD saw the JMM-led coalition grabbing power. But every election is different with different sub-surface equations at play.
Perhaps there are shades of the recently concluded Haryana assembly elections here. The politically influential Jats, comprising 27 percent of the population in the northern state, veered towards the Congress, while the BJP focussed on the non-Jat and OBC votes. The BJP made minor inroads into the Jat votes besides holding on to its core base. It won convincingly. The same could have a replay in Jharkhand with only a change in lead players. Like the Jat-non Jat divide, the tribal-non-tribal divide is strong here. If the BJP manages to divide tribal votes and keep its non-tribal votes more or less intact, it will sail through. In all likelihood, it would.
Both sides are into a high voltage campaign. The incarceration of Chief Minister Hemant Soren in the ED case has allowed the JMM to play the victim card. The BJP has sought to contain the fallout by wooing senior party leader Champei Soren to its fold. The BJP has been drumming up the illegal Bangladeshi migrant factor to have an edge while the INDIA bloc is playing up job tribal rights and social justice. The former has sought to counter it by asserting that tribals would be kept out of the proposed Uniform Civil Code. On jobs, the INDIA bloc promises 10 lakh of them while the BJP’s Amit Shah says filling up 2.87 lakh government jobs would be its first task in office.
However, considering the changed character of elections in the last decade, the campaign talking points may not be the critical vote catcher. The dynamics at work at the level of local and community and the ability of political players to turn them in their favour is more significance. In Haryana, the Congress campaign had all the right notes with real issues getting prominence, yet it was the BJP’s strategy to work the caste equations that came trumps. The BJP’s meticulousness in this aspect gives it a clear advantage in most elections. This invisible tactical play should have the opposition worried.
Also, it should be remembered that results are no more the conclusion to the election process, the formation of the government is. A lot can happen, as the previous Maharashtra assembly elections revealed, after the counting day. Alliances can change shape with fresh inclusions, there could be divisions in parties and independents can rally behind one coalition. BJP has proved adept at this game.
The edge is with the BJP in Jharkhand. Let’s wait for how it pans out.
(By arrangements with Perspective Bytes)
