Bhubaneswar: Under the influence of the cyclonic circulation over South Andaman Sea and neighbourhood, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region by Friday, the Bhubaneswar Meteorological Department (IMD) tweeted on Thursday.
The system is very likely to intensify into a depression in the subsequent 48 hours and move in the north-westward direction.
“Formation of a storm is high in the month of May. Its possible path and sphere of impact can be mapped only after a low-pressure area is formed,” said IMD DG Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra.
According to Centre for Environment and Climate (CEC), SOA University, director Sarat Sahu, the current conditions like the sea surface temperature are favourable for the formation of a cyclonic storm. He, however, said that more clarity regarding the path and intensity will emerge on May 7.
“Growing genesis potential is pointing towards tropical cyclone formation over the Bay of Bengal. Elevated probabilities of cyclogenesis suggest further up-gradation of the category of storm as it will travel over warm waters of the ocean under favourable environmental conditions. The longer the stay, the more are the chances for this weather system to sustain incremental growth over the next few days,” Skymet weather agency said.
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While there has been an appreciable increase in the frequency of tropical storms from April to May, these systems are known for deviating the specified norms, but the defiance is extreme during the month of May, it added.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicates that the system is likely to cross the Odisha coast around May 12 and make landfall in Dhaka, Bangladesh, around 3 am on May 14.
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Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said that the low pressure is expected to form near the Andaman & Nicobar Islands around Friday. “It can become a depression or cyclone over the Bay of Bengal this weekend or early next week. “Areas from Andhra Pradesh to WestBengal & Bangladesh need to monitor for possible impacts,” he added.
Notably, storms during the month of May threaten Myanmar, Bangladesh, West Bengal and Odisha. Between 2011 and 2021, the Bay of Bengal has witnessed six storms, including the extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Fani’ which made landfall in Odisha near Puri on May 3, 2019, with wind speed of 175-185 kmph gusting up to 205 kmph.
Amphan roared into West Bengal, around 20km east of Sagar Island in the Sunderbans, packing winds gusting to a top speed of 185 kmph on May 21, 2020. The following year, cyclone Yaas battered the northern coastline of Odisha with powerful winds and rains as it made landfall at Bahanaga block with a sustained wind speed of 130 to 140 kmph gusting up to 155 kmph on May 26.
The other three tropical storms – Viyaru (2013), Roanu (2016), Mora (2017) – struck Bangladesh near Chittagong.
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