Bhubaneswar: The Low Pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining South Andaman Sea has become Well Marked Low Pressure Area and it is very likely to intensify into a depression by evening, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) informed on Tuesday.
It will further intensify into a cyclonic storm over Southeast BoB & adjoining areas of East Central BoB & Andaman Sea on May 10. It is likely to move north-northwestwards till May 12. Thereafter, it will recurve gradually and move north-northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts.
The system is likely to intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm, but no prediction has been made yet on the landfall. Squally weather with wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is likely to prevail over Southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and adjoining Andaman Sea on May 9 and it is likely to increase up to 80 kmph by May 10 and 90 kmph by May 11-12. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into these areas.
Also Read: Where Is Cyclone Mocha Heading? Likely Place & Date Of Landfall From Weather Models
Upon its intensification into a cyclonic storm, the system will be called Cyclone Mocha, a name suggested by Yemen. It originates from the Yemeni city Mocha (or Mokha) located on the Red Sea coast, which is known to have introduced coffee to the world over 500 years ago. Mocha is a chocolate-flavoured warm beverage that is a variant of coffee.
According to senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls, the low near Andaman and Nicobar Islands will strengthen to a depression as it drifts north over the next day or so, then can become cyclonic storm Mocha later this week. Mocha can strike Myanmar, NE India or Bangladesh this weekend. Dry & warmer elsewhere, but some rain in south-west India.
According to Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the Met office on May 8, IMG GFS is indicating Depression on May 9 over Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea with intensification into Cyclonic Storm on May 10. Peak intensification is indicated up to very severe cyclonic storm stage. It is indicating initial north-northwestwards movement till May 11 and gradual north-northeastwards recurvature thereafter. Landfall is indicated around 0000 UTC (5.30 AM IST) of May 14 over Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts near 21.3N/92.5E.
Also Read: Cyclone Mocha To Form Around May 10, Intensify Into Very Severe Cyclonic Storm: IMD DG
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is indicating Depression around May 10 and rapid intensification into severe cyclonic storm on May 11. It is also indicating initial north-northwestwards movement till May 11 and north-northeastwards recurvature thereafter. Crossing is indicated on May 15 over Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts near near 23.3N/91.5E.
IMD MME (IMD GFS & NCEP GFS based) is indicating similar intensification and movement with crossing over Myanmar coast near 16.2N/94.2E, the outlook added.
