Bhubaneswar: A fresh system brewing over Bay of Bengal is likely to cause heavy rain in Odisha next week, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) informed on Friday.
A fresh cyclonic circulation very likely to form over North Andaman Sea around October 20. Under its influence, a low pressure area likely to form over central Bay of Bengal around October 22, thereafter, it is likely to move northwestwards and intensify further into a depression by October 24, according to the evening bulletin.
The weather agency has warned of isolated heavy rainfall in Odisha on October 23-24. It has also issued yellow warning of thunderstorm with lightning for Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Sundargarh, Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Khurda, Nayagarh, Ganjam, Gajapati districts on October 18-19. Light to moderate rain may continue in some districts, including coastal Odisha, till October 24, it added.
Director, IMD Bhubaneswar, Manorama Mohanty said that it is too early to predict whether the system will gain strength and intensify into a cyclone.
Notably, there is no unanimity among weather models over the peak intensification of the system. The IMD-GFS model indicates formation of a fresh low-pressure area over east-central Bay of Bengal on October 21, with northwestward movement towards the Odisha coast by October 24.
According to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS), the low pressure may turn into a depression. Similarly, the NCUM model shows emergence of a cyclonic circulation from the Gulf of Thailand into the north Andaman Sea on October 24, intensifying into a low-pressure area on October 25 over the north Andaman Sea and turning into a depression over the east-central Bay of Bengal on October 26.
The NCEP-GFS model is indicating emergence of a low-pressure area or cyclonic circulation into the north Andaman Sea on October 21 from the Gulf of Thailand, becoming a depression off the south Myanmar coast by October 21 (12 UTC). It is expected to develop into a cyclonic storm over the east-central Bay of Bengal on October 22 (06 UTC), intensifying further and moving nearly north-northwestward until October 22 (12 UTC), and then northward, reaching the Bangladesh coast by October 23 (18 UTC) as an intense cyclonic storm.
