Bhubaneswar: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast about a possible low-pressure formation in the north Andaman Sea around October 10 has led to speculation about a cyclone hitting the Odisha coast mid-month.
The low-pressure will become more marked and move west northwestwards towards south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh during the subsequent four to five days, the IMD said its bulletin.
Numerical models, including IMD GFS, NCEP-GFS, GEFS, NCUM, NEPS, ECMWF, have indicated that the system will intensify into depression over the east-central Bay of Bengal around October 14 with west-northwestwards movement towards south Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh. It is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm of severe category.
The Genesis Potential Parameter based on IMD GFS indicates a potential zone of cyclogenesis over the east-central Bay of Bengal on October 12 with subsequent west-northwestwards movement till October 14.
If the system intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it will be called Jawad, a name proposed by Saudi Arabia.
Notably, October is considered the ‘cyclone month’ for the state. Odisha has been hit by cyclones Phailin, Hudhud and Titli in 2013, 2014 and 2018 respectively during this month.
Cyclone Gulab made landfall in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh and affected several districts of southern Odisha in September this year.
Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre Director H R Biswas, however, told the media that the forecast about a possible cyclone can only be made after the formation of the low pressure.
Director of the Centre for Environment and Climate (CEC) Sarat Sahu said that the weather situation appears to be conducive for a cyclone, but it will premature to say anything about it so early. “A conclusion can be drawn only on October 13,” he added.
According to the available data, Odisha was hit by 98 cyclones between 1891 to 2000, followed by Andhra Pradesh (79). West Bengal (69), Tamil Nadu (62), Karnataka (2), Maharastra and Goa (18), Gujarat (28) and Kerala (3).
