New Delhi: With the monsoon session beginning on Monday, the BJP is all set to launch a major parliamentary push through legislative arithmetic to secure passage of two contentious constitutional amendments.
The first measure, the 130th Amendment Bill, would allow removal of a prime minister, chief minister or minister if they are jailed for 30 days, even on the basis of allegations. The second, the 131st Amendment Bill, is more far‑reaching: it ties the already‑approved 33 per cent Women’s Reservation to the Delimitation process, potentially triggering a large‑scale redraw of constituencies and an increase in Lok Sabha seats.
Given that both are constitutional changes, passage requires a special two‑thirds majority in each house, not just a simple majority. That forces the BJP to hunt for support beyond its ranks — splitting regional opposition groups and relying on smaller parties to build the necessary arithmetic, as reported by NDTV.
The government’s earlier attempt to push a Delimitation Bill during the April session fell well short of the special majority needed, with 528 MPs voting, 298 in favour, 230 against and the two-thirds mark fixed at 352. The gap has since sharpened attention on shifting alliances and the BJP’s tactical options.
New Alignments Strengthen NDA
Recent political shifts have bolstered the NDA’s chances. Twenty rebel MPs from the Trinamool have written to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla indicating their intention to merge into a new group called the “Nationalist Citizens Party of India” and join the NDA. In the south, the DMK—holding 30 parliamentary seats (22 Lok Sabha, 8 Rajya Sabha)—has started to distance itself from Congress and the INDIA bloc after the row over C Joseph Vijay, raising the prospect it may quietly side with the government on crucial votes.
Smaller Parties Key To NDA Math
The Lok Sabha has 540 seats, which means a two-thirds majority requires 360 votes. The NDA currently has 292 MPs, leaving it 68 short of that mark.
That gap could narrow if more parties or breakaway groups come on board. If 20 Trinamool rebels join, the NDA’s strength would rise to 312; with 6 rebel Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs, it would reach 318; support from 22 DMK MPs would take it to 340; and backing from 8 NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) MPs would push the total to 348.
NCP (SP) leader Supriya Sule has reportedly offered conditional support. Her party will back the measures only if the government guarantees a uniform 50 per cent increase in seats for the Lok Sabha and all state assemblies. The NDA would still be 12 votes short of the 360 needed, even after those gains. It is now likely to look toward smaller parties and independents such as the YSRCP, JMM, VCK, RLP and Akali Dal to make up the remaining numbers.
Absence Won’t Be Enough For NDA
If the Trinamool rebels, DMK, Shiv Sena UBT rebels and NCP-SP stay away from the vote, the House strength would fall to 484, lowering the two-thirds mark to 323. Even then, the NDA would still be 31 votes short, so absences alone would not be enough and the government would still need more support.
The Rajya Sabha Puzzle
The Rajya Sabha presents a similar challenge. Of its sanctioned strength of 245, the house currently has 242 members, which means the two-thirds threshold stands at 162, while the NDA has around 150 seats.
NDA Still Short In Rajya Sabha
If the NDA secures backing from NCP‑SP (1 MP) and DMK (8 MPs), its count would reach 159. Three former Trinamool MPs contesting Rajya Sabha bypolls this month could increase BJP ranks to 162 if they win. But when the house returns to full strength (245), the two‑thirds bar rises to 164, leaving the NDA short by two votes. That shortfall would force outreach to neutral or regional parties such as YSRCP (7), BJD (5), BRS (3), or BSP (1).
Even Absences Leave NDA Short
If the 9 MPs from NCP‑SP and DMK choose to stay absent, the effective house strength lowers to 233 and the two‑thirds target falls to 156. The NDA would then still be six votes shy at 150.
If the three new BJP Rajya Sabha wins come through and the absentees stay away, the house strength could be 245 with 236 members voting. The two‑thirds mark then becomes 158 and the NDA would have 153 — still five votes short.
BJP Faces A Hard Numbers Game
With both Houses requiring a special majority, the monsoon session is likely to become a tight exercise in vote management. BJP strategists will try to split the Opposition, bring in smaller parties and use absences to lower the bar.
