New Delhi: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast monsoon rainfall at 90 per cent of the long period average over the country.
With fertiliser supplies likely to be impacted due to the ongoing West Asia crisis, this forecast has given rise to concerns about foodgrain production.
Weak El Nino conditions are expected to develop in June, strengthening towards second half of the season, The IMD said on Friday.
“The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of +four per cent, indicating below normal or less rainfall is most likely,” the IMD presented in a press briefing on Friday.
While northeastern India is expected to see normal rains, northwestern, central and south peninsular India are projected to experience below-normal monsoon rains, according to IMD.
“During June 2026, above normal heat wave days are expected over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhr
a Pradesh, isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu,” the IMD said.
India is likely to see a “below normal” monsoon this year, the IMD had predicted In its first stage long range forecast for monsoon season.
Rainfall is expected to be 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with an error margin of +/-5 per cent, the IMD had said in a projection that signaled challenges for the country’s rain-fed agriculture and the broader rural economy.
The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during 1971-2020 is 87 cm, Hindustan Times had reported earlier.
Below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country except some areas over northeastern, northwestern and south Peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely, the spatial distribution released by IMD suggests.
This fresh forecast of even lower than earlier predicted monsoon rains carries significant economic implications for India, which is heavily reliant on agriculture.
According to the agriculture ministry, 51 per cent of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40 per cent of production, is rain-fed. With 47 per cent of the country’s population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, a below-par monsoon can dampen rural consumption and push up food prices.
The last time India received “below normal” rain was in 2023, also an El Nino year, when rainfall over the country as a whole during monsoon season was 94% of its LPA.
According to the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), El Nino conditions are likely to be established during the monsoon season especially during July, August and September,