Washington/Moscow: A key US waiver easing sanctions on Russian oil purchases expires on Saturday, raising questions about whether Washington will prolong the relief amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and ongoing talks with Moscow.
Rolled out a month back to blunt Middle East war-triggered price surges, the waiver greenlights purchases of Russian crude already at sea — crucial for India’s refiners navigating global shortages.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy intensified calls for its cancellation on Thursday, arguing the emerging ceasefire shifts the calculus by potentially restoring Hormuz passage for tankers, as reported by Mint.
“Now a ceasefire is beginning in the Middle East and the Gulf. And I am waiting for sanctions on Russian oil to be fully reimposed, as they were before,” Zelenskyy said in a statement to journalists. His plea underscores Kyiv’s fears that prolonged relief bolsters Moscow’s revenues amid the Ukraine conflict.
India’s Stake In The Balance
For India, a top Russian oil buyer, the waiver has been vital amid global shortages. It enabled discounted Urals crude imports, cushioning domestic refiners. Russia has sweetened ties with offers of LNG at up to 40% off, per reports—deals that could vanish if sanctions tighten, hiking India’s energy costs.
No US statement has emerged on extending the measure, even as the Hormuz waterway could soon resume traffic under a US-Iran interim pact. Experts caution that war-ravaged Middle East refineries make an overnight supply surge improbable.
US-Russia Talks Enter The Fray
Russia’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is in Washington, engaging Trump’s administration on Ukraine peace and bilateral economic ties, according to Reuters. Whether oil sanctions feature in these discussions is unknown, Reuters reported.
Expert Calls For Reversal
Critics contend the waiver merits reversal. A Wall Street Journal article argued it failed to tame crude prices — which slipped under $100 a barrel post-ceasefire announcement — but bolstered Moscow’s war chest. The piece alleged Russian intelligence aid to Iran targeting Americans, pressing Trump to reinstate curbs.
An Atlantic Council opinion piece states: “There was no need to suspend the price cap on Russian crude. The cap would not have disrupted Russian supply flows. In fact, keeping the cap in place could have helped ease upward pressure on crude oil prices while continuing to constrain Russian revenues.”
Argus Media data shows Russian Urals crude hitting its highest export price since April 2012 this week.
Outlook For Oil Markets And Importers
Prolonging the waiver would keep supplies flowing to top buyers including India, where Russia has dangled LNG deals at up to 40% discounts, reports say. Reimposing sanctions, per experts, poses minimal risk to global prices amid lingering regional disruptions.
