Bhubaneswar: An upper air cyclonic circulation formed over Equatorial Indian Ocean off Sumatra coast and adjoining South Andaman Sea at 8.30 am, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) informed on Thursday.
“Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal around November 23. Thereafter, it is likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over central parts of south Bay of Bengal during subsequent 2 days,” it said.
In its Tropical Weather Outlook, the IMD further stated that there is large divergence among various models on the peak intensification of system. The GFS group of models are indicating higher intensification, ECMWF up to depression/deep depression stage and NCUM up to low-pressure area stage. “However, there is good consensus among various models that the system would weaken before crossing Tamil Nadu coast. Most of the models are indicating west-northwestwards to northwestwards movement towards Sri Lanka-South Tamil Nadu coasts. Only NCEP GFS is indicating initial westnorthwestwards movement followed by north-northwestwards movement and crossing over Andhra Pradesh coast,” it said.
A continuous watch is being maintained for further intensification and movement of system towards Tamil Nadu-Sri Lanka coasts, it added.
It has warned of isolated very heavy rainfall very likely in south Tamil Nadu on November 21 & 26, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on November 26 & 27. Isolated heavy rainfall in Nicobar From November 21-24, Kerala & Mahe on November 21, 26 & 27 south Tamil Nadu on November 25 & 27 and Rayalaseema on November 26 & 27.
Meanwhile, several places in Odisha saw a slight rise in the night temperature in the last 24 hours. G Udayagiri in Kandhamal continued to be the coldest place in the state at 7.4°C on Thursday, over a degree more than the previous day of 6.2°C. The hill station had recorded 6.6°C on Tuesday.
Semiliguda in Koraput was close second at 8.1°C, followed by Phulbani and Daringbadi in Kandhamal at 9°C and 11°C respectively. The night temperature was 4.5 and 4.1 degrees below normal in Angul (13) and Jharsuguda (12.4).
Bhubaneswar and Cuttack also saw a slight rise in the mercury at 16.7°C and 16.8°C respectively. The twin cities had recorded 16°C each the previous day.
Difference in night temperature
While dry weather may continue to prevail till November 27 with no large change in the night temperature during the next 4-5 days, the weather agency has warned of shallow to moderate fog at one or two places in Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Sundargarh, and Jharsuguda till November 23 morning.
Weather Models On Intensification Of The System
IMD GFS is indicating cyclonic circulation over Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) off Sumatra coast & adjoining South Andaman Sea by 0000 UTC (5.30 hours behind IST) of November 21, low-pressure area over southeast Bay of Bay & adjoining south Andaman Sea around November 23 with nearly west-northwestwards movement and intensification into depression over southeast Bay of Bengal around November 23/0000 UTC and further intensifying into a deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal around Novemebr 24/0000, cyclonic storm over southeast & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal on November 25/0000. It is moving northwestwards and lay over southwest Bay of Bengal as a cyclonic storm around November 26/0000. It will then move towards Tamil Nadu coast while weakening and cross the coast as a deep depression around November 27/0000.
NCEP GFS is indicating cyclonic circulation over Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) off Sumatra coast & adjoining South Andaman Sea by 0000 UTC of November 2, low-pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal & adjoining south Andaman Sea around November 23/0000 with west-northwestwards movement and intensification into depression over southeast Bay of Bengal around November 24/0000 UTC. Moving in the same direction, it intensifies into severe cyclonic storm over southeast & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal around November 25. Continuing to move in the same direction with the same intensity it lay over southwest Bay of Bengal as a severe cyclonic storm around November27/0000. It will then move towards Tamil Nadu coast and cross the coast as a deep depression/cyclonic storm around November 28/0000.
ECMWF is indicating low-pressure area over Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) off Sumatra coast & adjoining South Andaman Sea around November 22/0000, nearly northwestwards movement and intensification into depression over southeast Bay of Bengal around November 24/0000. It will then move west-northwestwards and lay close to the Sri Lanka coast as a depression around November 25/0000. Continuing to move in the same direction and cross the Tamil Nadu coast as a depression around November 26/1900.
