Bhubaneswar: October is known as the cyclone season for Odisha amid rapid intensification of systems forming over Bay of Bengal due to exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures.
If weather models are any indication, the Bay of Bengal is likely to spawn cyclone by next week.
“A fresh upper air cyclonic circulation very likely to form over North Andaman Sea around October 20. Under its influence, Low-Pressure area likely to form over Central Bay of Bengal around October 22, thereafter, it is likely to move northwestwards and intensify further,” India Meteorological Department (IMD) scientist Umashankar Dash posted on X.
This prediction comes as a cyclonic depression over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal crossed north Tamil Nadu-South Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore, close to north of Chennai, in the early hours of Thursday. “Subsequently, it weakened into a well-marked low pressure area and lay over South coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining North coastal Tamil Nadu at 5.30 am. It is likely to continue to move west-northwestwards and weaken further into a low pressure area during next 12 hours.”
According to Tropical Weather Outlook issued by IMD on Thursday, the IMD-GFS model indicates formation of a fresh low-pressure area over east-central Bay of Bengal on October 21, with northwestward movement towards the Odisha coast by October 24.
Similarly, the NCUM model shows emergence of a cyclonic circulation from the Gulf of Thailand into the north Andaman Sea on October 24, intensifying into a low-pressure area on October 25 over the north Andaman Sea and turning into a depression over the east-central Bay of Bengal on October 26.
It further stated that the NCEP-GFS model is indicating emergence of a low-pressure area or cyclonic circulation into the north Andaman Sea on October 21 from the Gulf of Thailand, becoming a depression off the south Myanmar coast by October 21 (12 UTC). It is expected to develop into a cyclonic storm over the east-central Bay of Bengal on October 22 (06 UTC), intensifying further and moving nearly north-northwestward until October 22 (12 UTC), and then northward, reaching the Bangladesh coast by October 23 (18 UTC) as an intense cyclonic storm.
The IMD was yet to make forecast regarding the possible system in its bulletin.
According to weather experts, there is a rise in ocean heating after the withdrawal of the Southwest monsoon and this leads to rise in sea surface temperature over the Bay of Bengal. The atmospheric moisture availability over the ocean region, too, is higher. These create conducive conditions, aiding the formation and intensification of cyclones in October.
