It’s a four-letter word alright, and US president-elect Donald Trump loves it. Nothing out of place, one might assume. But the word is ‘deal’. While conventional politicians would discuss and negotiate, Trump would like to make a deal. There’s a difference. Deal has a ring of conclusion about it, while negotiation does not. That sets his politics apart from others. He is definitive, maybe in a dislikeable way at times, while other politicians are not.
This is perhaps one major reason for the overwhelming mandate in his favour in the elections late last year. There is a fatigue with the sophistry of routine politicians among people. They want decisive action, concrete results, not a surfeit of platitudinous words. This is the case in many countries which have witnessed the ascendance of the ideological Right, including India. Trump with his devil-may-care airs fits into the image of the rebel-disruptor in popular imagination.
After he officially assumes helmsmanship of the most powerful country on January 20, the world must make itself familiar with the word deal. His promise to make America great again would rest heavily on the deals he makes with other countries – the deals that are favourable to the interests of the US. If other countries can bring a good bargain to the table it would work for them too. There would be no half-measures, diplomatic words or deliberate ambiguity. It may not work in favour of some, but that’s what they have to contend with during his presidency. The majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives gives him unfettered power this time unlike during his previous term between 2016 and 2020.
Trump would leverage the financial and military muscle of the US to drive a hard bargain. During his idle days as president-elect he has floated several ideas that are as disruptive as ridiculous. He wants Denmark to cede Greenland, Canada to merge with the US to become its 51st state and the ‘return of the Panama canal’ to the US. This could be ignored as silly talk from a habitually tall-talker, but they could well be chips in a possible future bargain. Greenland is rich in natural resources, including rare earth, and its acquisition would certainly be hugely beneficial to the US. Trump wants more control over them. His hint at use of military force if necessary is an expression of serious intent.
Tariffs, not so much military prowess, would be his likely weapon to browbeat countries. He has threatened to slap tariffs of 10 percent to 60 percent on goods from China. He has already labelled India ‘Tariff King’. If he goes ahead and imposes reciprocal tariff on goods it could impact Indian export business hard. Mexico and Canada are already on his radar for high tariff barriers on US goods.
“… If they tax us, we tax them the same amount. They tax us. We tax them. And they tax us. Almost in all cases, they’re taxing us, and we haven’t been taxing them,” he told reporters recently. Blunt, but coming from a businessman-president it is understandable.
So the world has to stay prepared for disruption of the old and adjustment to the new equations unleashed by the Trump administration. But deals can be a good proposition for all as well. From January 20, the world would be on a new tangent. Stay ready.
(By arrangement with Perspective Bytes)
