Bhubaneswar: The cyclonic circulation, which entered the south Andaman sea from the Gulf of Thailand and Myanmar region, is expected to form a low-pressure area in the next 24 hours.
The system is likely to move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal (BoB) during subsequent 48 hours, the IMD said on Tuesday.
According to the agency’s November 29 FDP (Cyclone) NOC Report, the IMD-GFS model indicates the formation of a cyclonic storm at 11:30 pm on November 30 over south Andaman Sea, persistence over the same area on December 1, its rapid intensification into an extremely severe cyclonic storm over southeast and adjoining east central BoB on December 2, over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral BoB on December 3, over westcentral BoB, very close to north Andhra Pradesh coast on December 4, moving northeastwards, skirting north Andhra Pradesh coast and crossing south Odisha coast with very severe intensity around 11:30 am on December 4.
“The likely low pressure over the Andaman Sea will concentrate into depression by December 2 and into a cyclonic storm over Central BoB by December 3. It will reach south Odisha & north Andhra coast the following day,” said IMD DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.
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Private weather forecaster Skymet said that sea surface temperature and vertical wind shear is compatible to support the growth of the system. “Heat potential appears to be adequate for expansion of the depression and steer it to a storm, while deep in the ocean over central parts of BoB. Sufficiently long sea travel is supporting further intensification before reaching near the coastline on December 3-4,” it added.
According to Monday’s American GFS model, the possible cyclone is likely to head towards the Odisha coast and make landfall between Berhampur and Puri.
The European weather model has, however, predicted the movement of the storm towards the Andhra Pradesh coast near Visakhapatnam.
Senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls tweeted: “The low will strengthen as it tracks WNW across the Bay of Bengal. Storm can become a cyclone before impacting areas from coastal Andhra Pradesh to Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh with flooding rains and gusty winds late this week.”
If the system intensifies into a cyclone, it will be named ‘Jawad’ as proposed by Saudi Arabia.
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