Tokyo: Japan’s government is poised to implement eased arms export rules this month, igniting interest from Warsaw to Manila, Reuters has learned. The shift, approved this week by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling party, seeks to revitalize the nation’s pacifist defence sector as President Donald Trump’s fluctuating alliance pledges coincide with US weapons strains from wars in Ukraine and Iran.
Three Japanese officials confirmed the formal adoption timeline to Reuters.
Despite post-World War II isolation from global arms trade, Japan’s $60 billion defence budget this year underpins advanced manufacturing of submarines and fighter jets.
Allies Eye Japanese Alternatives
Potential buyers include Poland’s military and the Philippine navy, modernizing against regional threats, based on Reuters interviews with Japanese officials and Tokyo diplomats. Defence giants Toshiba and Mitsubishi Electric are hiring and expanding capacity, their executives revealed in previously unreported details.
An initial deal under Takaichi’s administration could greenlight used frigates for the Philippines, amid its South China Sea clashes with Beijing, two officials told Reuters.
Missile defence systems might come next.
Warsaw and Tokyo could fill each other’s arsenal gaps, particularly in anti-drone and electronic warfare, said Mariusz Boguszewski, Poland’s deputy chief of mission in Japan. “There are some bottlenecks that we can overcome having Japan on board,” he added, without detailing deals. Poland’s WB Group inked a tentative drone agreement last year with Japanese firm ShinMaywa.
Firms Ramp Up Amid Risks
Three European diplomats, speaking anonymously on sensitive topics, said the easing offers relief from US production bottlenecks. Trump’s NATO exit threats and Greenland invasion talk have accelerated diversification.
“Offers are coming from everywhere,” said Masahiko Arai, senior vice president at Mitsubishi Electric’s defence unit, which is staffing up in London and Singapore for exports.
Takaichi’s office referred Reuters to her February 20 speech: she was reviewing controls “to bolster Japan’s defence production and strengthen capabilities of allies.” Successive US administrations, including Trump’s, have urged the change for shared defence loads. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly highlighted close Trump-Takaichi ties but skipped policy questions. China’s Mao Ning, in April remarks, voiced concern: Beijing hoped Tokyo would “act prudently in military and security areas.” Manila’s defence ministry declined comment.
From Abe’s Legacy to Takaichi’s Push
The reforms build on steps over a decade ago under Takaichi’s mentor, the late Shinzo Abe, who lifted a near-total export ban for joint ally development against China’s military expansion. Progress stalled on lethal weapons curbs, deterring firms.
Buoyed by election success without a resistant coalition partner, Takaichi aims to spur capacity for Japan’s military expansion. Toshiba plans 500 hires over three years, new testing sites, and an export department. “Reputational risk is not what it used to be,” said Kenji Kobayashi, vice president in Toshiba’s defence division.
Mitsubishi Electric—which makes fridges and missiles—is recruiting for overseas sales of fighters and more. Arai forecasts 50% unit sales growth to 600 billion yen ($3.8 billion) by 2031, with Asia hungry for systems and Europe/Australia/US for components.
Some consumer-facing brands worry about backlash. Latvia’s envoy Zigmars Zilgalvis noted Toyota’s subsidiary rejecting a 2023 Latvian military vehicle parts bid, which his mission tried to broker. Toyota cited business policy; VR Cars respected the call. Strict conflict-zone bans remain, but Ukraine sees openings: its Tokyo chamber head Kateryna Yavorska said a Ukrainian-Japanese drone group launches soon, timed to the rules.
Breaking US Supply Dominance
The US has long ruled military chains—95% of Japan’s imports, 85% of Australia’s/Britain’s, 77% of Saudi Arabia’s (2021-2025, per SIPRI). Delays and tech controls frustrate users. A ruling party security drafter said Asia-focused chains independent of the US are a goal.
South Korea blazed the trail as Poland/Philippines’ top supplier. Japan’s industry—matching South Korea/Germany/Italy/Israel, double India’s—holds vast potential, per 2024 SIPRI contractor data. The US dwarfs it 25-fold.
“Japan has been kind of in the timeout box because of World War Two, frankly. But they were inevitably going to swing closer towards the centre of global politics,” said Andrew Koch, founder of Tokyo-based Nexus Pacific.
