New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has downgraded its forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon, warning of below-normal rainfall across large parts of the country, including Odisha.
In a press conference, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that the seasonal rainfall (June–September) is now expected to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from the 92% forecast issued in April. He attributed it to the expected development of El Nino conditions. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to evolve into an El Nino phase during the southwest monsoon season with potential impacts intensifying in the latter half of the season (July-September).
“This implies that during the 2026 monsoon season—that is, from June to September—there is a higher probability of the country receiving below-normal rainfall. During the Southwest Monsoon season of June to September 2026, Northeast India is likely to receive normal rainfall, ranging between 94 and 106% of the Long Period Average. Furthermore, in Central India and the Southern Peninsular region, rainfall is likely to be less than 94% of the Long Period Average—i.e., below normal—while in Northwest India, it is expected to be less than 92%, indicating a high probability of below-normal rainfall in that region as well. The Monsoon Core Zone, over Central India, is also likely to experience below-normal rainfall; specifically, less than 94% of the Long Period Average. During the June to September 2026 period, seasonal rainfall across most parts of the country is most likely to be below normal, with the exception of certain areas in Northwest and Northeast India, the eastern parts of the Southern Peninsula, some adjoining areas of East-Central India, and a few isolated pockets of East India, where rainfall is expected to range from normal to above normal,” he stressed.
This is the lowest pre-monsoon seasonal estimate given by the IMD since the super El Niño year of 2015.
Regional Outlook
“In the month of June, average rainfall across the country is likely to be below normal—that is, less than 92% of the long-period average… This excludes North-Western India, North-Eastern India, parts of the Southern Peninsula, and some pockets of Central India, where rainfall is expected to range from normal to above normal,” the IMD DG said.
While Central Odisha belt is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, North and Southern Odisha districts are expected to experience deficit rainfall.
Heatwave Warning
Monsoon Progress
On a positive note, conditions are favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala next week, according to Mohapatra.
The monsoon has reached the Andaman Sea, touching the Andaman Islands on May 16. However, its further advance over the mainland has been delayed. The onset over Kerala, originally expected around May 26, is now likely during the first week of June. The monsoon may reach Odisha after June 10.
IMD officials noted low possibilities of cyclone formation during the early phase of the monsoon. Even if southwesterly winds arrive from the southern hemisphere, their further advancement remains uncertain.
El Niño Influence
Mohapatra highlighted that a transition is being observed in the El Niño conditions, which is influencing the monsoon outlook. The Ministry of Earth Sciences also noted that while the monsoon has arrived over the southern seas, it has not yet advanced over land.
El Niño events typically weaken monsoon winds and reduce rainfall, particularly over central and peninsular India.
“Below-normal rainfall may lead to challenges for agriculture, water availability, hydropower generation, and ecosystem sustainability, along with increased risks of drought, heat stress, and pressure on drinking water resources. To minimise these impacts, strategies can include efficient water resource management, promotion of water conservation practices, contingency planning for agriculture, strengthening drought monitoring and use of early warning services of IMD, and enhancing preparedness measures in sectors that are particularly vulnerable to rainfall deficits,” IMD cautioned.
