Bangkok: As the Middle East war intensifies, China’s unofficial mediation in the Iran conflict is highlighting its bid to appear as a steady global leader, even as US moves under President Donald Trump have strained longstanding partnerships.
China’s diplomatic sway has risen sharply through daring diplomacy. Once cautious about distant flare-ups, it now facilitates resolutions from Southeast Asia across to Europe.
In the Iran war, it’s no formal mediator, yet Washington, Tehran, and others give credit to its de-escalation push. Analysts highlight Beijing’s recurring strategies in different crises—delivering uneven results but well timed against Trump’s strains on traditional alliances.
China’s tight Tehran links offer rare sway, vital as the fight rattles Asian energy flows.
Economic Leverage Fuels Influence
Trump has said he believes China helped encourage Iran to negotiate the fragile ceasefire that he has now extended.
Diplomats told The Associated Press that Beijing, the biggest purchaser of sanctioned Iranian oil, used its leverage to urge the Iranians back to the negotiating table for historic face-to-face talks in Pakistan earlier this month.
Beijing stays mum on details, wary of US-led optics, said Yaqi Li, a researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
This comes despite China’s rebukes of the US-Israel war, sparked by February 28 strikes. Foreign Minister Wang Yi dialed Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and UAE leaders, tallying 30 calls by mid-April. He pitched a five-point plan to Pakistan’s counterpart—chief mediator—demanding hostilities end and Strait of Hormuz reopen.
President Xi Jinping lately sharpened his rhetoric, warning last week against “the world’s retrogression to the law of the jungle.” This week, he called for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.
George Chen, a partner at The Asia Group consultancy, said China’s role in the Iran situation is irreplaceable. As Tehran’s biggest oil buyer, its advice carries weight. China is also one of the few countries that has showed sympathy for Iran’s situation at the United Nations, he said.
US officials say Chinese technology is linked to Iran’s missiles and dual‑use equipment. Tuvia Gering, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, said China is in a strong position to offer Tehran important economic incentives, especially after the war, because Beijing can promise support for rebuilding and trade relief that few other countries can match. “It could be one of the few actors capable of giving Tehran both political cover and material incentives to accept constraints and stick to them,” he said.
Cautious Wins Build Momentum
China’s 2023 Saudi-Iran thaw was hailed as a breakthrough curbing proxy risks, said Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, a researcher at the Center of Economic and Law Studies in Indonesia. But “Its mediation tends to be opportunistic and low-risk, often occurring when conditions are already conducive to agreement,” he said.
Beijing aided Thailand-Cambodia ceasefires alongside the US and floated Ukraine plans despite Russia ties.
Consistent Calls for Order
President Xi Jinping lately sharpened his rhetoric, warning last week against “the world’s retrogression to the law of the jungle.” This week, he called for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.
Nanyang Technological University’s Hoo Tiang Boon noted: “A lot of the points are remarkably consistent.”
Chulalongkorn University’s Thitinan Pongsudhirak added: “What the US is doing is deeply damaging, and everyone suffers from it … and China is displaying global leadership and exerting its global role by speaking to the rules-based international system. It’s an inescapable contrast.”
