Despite Delay, IMD Predicts Normal Monsoon This Year


Bhubaneswar: Despite delay in the southwest monsoon’s advance, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted normal monsoon across the country this year.

In a release on Saturday, the IMD said that as per the second stage long range forecast update for the 2019 southwest monsoon, rainfall over the country as a whole for 2019 monsoon season (June-September) is most likely to be normal (96% to 104%) of long period average (LPA).

“Quantitatively, the monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of the LPA with a model error of ± 4%. Region wise, the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 94% of the LPA over northwest India, 100% of LPA over central India, 97% of LPA over the south peninsula and 91% of LPA over north-east India, all with a model error of ± 8%. The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 95% of its LPA during July and 99% of LPA during August, both with a model error of ± 9%. The current weak El Nino conditions over Pacific are likely to continue during the monsoon season with some possibility of these conditions turning into neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions during the latter part of the monsoon season,” the release said.

The IMD has further said that the southwest monsoon, which has advanced into the Andamans, is expected to hit the Kerala coast on June 6.

Usually, after entering Kerala coast, it takes about two weeks for the monsoon to reach the Odisha coast. Going by the forecast, monsoon will enter Odisha in the third week of June.

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