Bhubaneswar: Odisha will continue to experience dry weather till December 2 with light to moderate rain in some southern districts on November 28, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) informed on Sunday.
According to the midday bulletin, light to moderate rain/thundershower may occur at one or two places in Koraput, Malkangiri, Nabarangpur, Rayagada, Gajapati, Kalahandi, Kandhamal and Nuapada on November 28. There is no large change in the night temperature during next 4-5 days.
The weather agency also informed that low-pressure area is likely to form over South Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal on November 27 under the influence of a cyclonic circulation, which persists over south Thailand & adjoining South Andaman Sea & neighbourhood. The system is likely to move westnorthwestwards and intensify into a depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal around November 29.
While the IMD is yet to make any prediction on further intensification of this system, Bangladesh Meteorological Department has forecast that a severe cyclone might develop from the low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal by November 30 or December 1.
According to Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the IMD earlier this morning, most models are indicating formation of depression over South Bay of Bengal during November 28-30, it’s intensification into a cyclonic storm and it’s northeastwards recurvature. “However, there is large variation among various models with respect to the area of formation of depression, time of formation, point of recurvature and intensity,” it said.
IMD GFS is indicating low-pressure area over South Andaman sea on November 27, severe cyclonic storm over Southeast Bay of Bengal on November 28, west-northwestwards movement till December 2, followed by north-northeastwards towards Bangladesh coast and rapid weakening near coast
NCEP GFS is indicating low-pressure area over South Andaman sea on November 27, depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal on November 29, west-northwestwards movement till November 30 over southeast bob, followed by nearly northeastwards movement towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.
Regarding intensification, this model is also indicating intensification up to severe cyclonic storm till December 2 and weakening from December 4 onwards with system reaching coast as a depression.
Thus, both GFS models are indicating movement towards Bangladesh coast with weakening.
ECMWF is indicating depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal on November 29, with intensification into a severe cyclonic storm and initial west-northwestwards movement towards westcentral bob till December 4, followed by northeastwards recurvature over westcentral Bay of Bengal on December 5
NCUM is indicating a low-pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal on December 1, depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal on December 3 and intensification into a cyclonic storm over westcentral Bay of Bengal on December 5 with initial northnorthwestwards movement till Decemeber 4 followed by north-northeastwards movement till December 6 towards eastcentral Bay of Bengal.
“In view of all the above, it is inferred that a low-pressure area is likely to form over South Andaman sea & adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal around November 27. It is likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal around November 29,” it added.
The MeT office has forecast light to moderate rainfall at many places accompanied with isolated thunderstorm & lightning over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during November 26-17. Isolated heavy rainfall also likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during November 26-28.
“East Rajasthan, Vidarbha and Madhya Maharashtra likely to be hit with heavy rainfall (64.5 to 115.6 mm) along with hailstorm tonight,” it further tweeted.
Squally wind speed reaching 40-45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph is likely over South & adjoining North Andaman Sea on November 27; and increase to 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph over Southeast Bay of Bengal & adjoining Andaman Sea during November 28-29 and over southeast & adjoining Southwest & Central Bay of Bengal on November 30.
Fishermen have been advised not to venture into South Andaman Sea during November 27-3 and over Southeast Bay of Bengal during November 28-30.
According private forecaster Skymet, favourable environmental conditions will stimulate the low pressure to rapidly intensify to a depression first and go on to become a tropical storm by November 28-29. Senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls tweeted: “Tropical low near #Malaysia will move into the #AndamanSea Sunday, then can become a depression in the Bay of Bengal by midweek. Good chance to become Cyclonic Storm #Michaung before threatening eastern #India or #Bangladesh by next weekend.”
If the system intensify into a cyclone, it will be called Michaung, a name suggested by Myanmar. It will be the sixth such event forming in the Indian Ocean this year, compared to the customary four cyclones that occur in most years, and the fourth in the Bay of Bengal.
On November 17, a low-intensity cyclone named Midhili had crossed Bangladesh coast with “weak” winds, but caused significant harm, killing at least seven people and destroying scores of homes.
