Bhubaneswar: The depression over central Bay of Bengal is very likely to intensify further into a cyclone over westcentral Bay of Bengal after October 22, India Meteorological Department (IMD) DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told the media on Tuesday.
“No forecast has yet been made on its intensity and the state it would hit. A clear picture would emerge after formation of low pressure and subsequent depression,” he added.
Earlier in the day, the national weather forecaster had said that a low-pressure area is likely to form over southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal during the next 48 hours. It is likely to move in west-northwestward direction and concentrate into a depression by October 22 morning. It is very likely to intensify further into a cyclone over westcentral Bay of Bengal subsequently.
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However, different weather models have been indicating different paths of the anticipated cyclone. The model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows landfall north of Balasore on October 26 while the Global Forecast System (GFS) model suggests likely landfall at Digha on October 25.
Earlier, the NCMRWF Unified model group indicated nearly westwards movement of the system towards North Tamil Nadu. The GFS and ECMWF showed nearly north-northwestwards movement towards North Andhra Pradesh-South Odisha.
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Both ECM & GFS models now agree with the arrival of Western Disturbance between October 21-24 and recurving of the system towards North. Both also show intensification of the system up to the cyclonic storm, but dry air intrusion thereafter may not be supportive of the system’s further intensification.
This system will be named as ‘Sitrang’ if it intensifies into a cyclonic storm.
Also Read: Cyclone ‘Sitrang’ Likely To Form In Bay After Oct 22; Know Who Named It & What It Means
According to former director of IMD, Bhubaneswar, Sarat Sahu there is a high possibility of the system being converted into a cyclone and it is likely to cross the Andhra-Odisha coast or Odisha coast or Odisha-West Bengal coast between October 24 and 26.
“Its intensity will be known around October 22. However, the coastal areas of Odisha will experience heavy rainfall under its influence between October 23 and 26,” he added.
Meanwhile, AccuWeather lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls tweeted that low pressure is expected to form over the eastern Bay of Bengal over the next couple of days then can strengthen to depression and cyclonic storm this weekend. “Cyclone can make landfall in north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha or Bengal early next week. Storm can peak as a severe cyclonic storm or very severe cyclonic storm,” he added.
