New Delhi: If early trends hold true, it seems that Delhi’s middle class and Purvanchali voters (especially people from eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar), who played a key role in ensuring the AAP’s landslide win in the Delhi polls in 2015 and 2020, have drifted away from the Arwind Kejriwal’s party. Once pitched as a party that would take on corruption and fight against it, AAP seemed to have offended the middle class with many of its big leaders, including Kejriwal himself, getting tainted in graft cases.
With the BJP taking a lead in Delhi polls—according to the early trends—in most of the middle-class-dominated seats across West Delhi, East Delhi, South Delhi, Central Delhi and New Delhi, as well as in the 25 seats dominated by Purvanchali voters, there’s perhaps a shift in support base. In the 20 seats in the Trans Yamuna region— dotted with unauthorised colonies—the BJP has taken an early lead in at least 10 seats, while the AAP is ahead in nine seats after the initial rounds of vote counting.
Here’s the latest tally around 11.10am:
Is middle-class upset with AAP? How did BJP win their support?
The fact that former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is facing a tough contest from BJP’s Parvesh Verma in the New Delhi seat indicate that all’s not well between the middle class and AAP. The middle-class, which comprises around 40% of the Delhi voters, seems to be upset with the AAP. The tax relief in the Budget that was recently tabled in the Parliament may have worked for the BJP to woo the middle class. BJP leaders, including PM Narendra Modi, were heard referring to the Budget and its sops for middle class during the Delhi poll campaigns. The middle class may also have been upset with the AAP’s governance record on issues such as air and water pollution, and infrastructure development. The announcement of the 8th Pay Commission just ahead of the Delhi elections may have also worked for the BJP. This is because Delhi has a large number of government employees as voters.
The Purvanchali community, who make up around 30% of Delhi’s electorate, may have also shifted. This has happened, if trends hold true, despite Kejriwal’s attempt to stir up Purvanchali sentiments during the campaign by accusing the BJP-led Haryana government of “poisoning” the Yamuna River.
The Yamuna is much revered among the Purvanchali community. Kejriwal had also accused the BJP of manipulating electoral rolls by registering a large number of “fake voters” from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
Will Muslim-majority Okhla have a non-Muslim MLA first time since 1993? Roller-coaster ride continues….
Senior AAP leader and two-time MLA Amanatullah Khan was trailing in his Okhla bastion, according to early trends. BJP’s Manish Chaudhary was leading the race according to the very early trends around 9,30am. But as the day is progressing, trends are changing. Khan is now leading with over 8,000 votes against Shifa Ur Rehman Khan of All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen trailing. BJP’s Manish Chaudhury has been pushed to third position as he trails behind Manish with over 9,000 votes. The Okhla constituency has about 60% Muslim population.
Wipeout for Congress?
The Congress appears to be headed for yet another electoral disaster in Delhi. According to early trends at the time of writing of the report around 11.10am, the BJP was leading in 41 seats and AAP in 29 seats. The Congress had no sign of leading in any of the 70 seats. Exit polls had also predicted a third consecutive wipeout for the Congress in Delhi.
