Mocha To Turn Into Severe Cyclonic Storm By Midnight: Check Likely Track, Intensity & Landfall Point

Bhubaneswar: The storm brewing in Southeast Bay of Bengal intensified into a cyclonic storm, Mocha, early on Thursday morning, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

“The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards with a speed of 8 kmph during past 6 hours, intensified into a cyclonic storm and lay centered at 5.30 am over the same region, about 510 km west-southwest of Port Blair, 1210 km south-southwest of Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and 1120 km south-southwest of Sittwe (Myanmar),” the MeT office informed.

A system is categorised as a Cyclonic Storm when its 3-minute average maximum sustained wind speeds fall between 63-88 kmph.

It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and gradually intensify into a severe cyclonic storm around midnight. Thereafter, it is likely to recurve gradually, move north-northeastwards from May 12 morning and intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm around May 12 evening over central Bay of Bengal. It would reach its peak intensity around May 13 evening. Thereafter, it is likely to weaken slightly from May 14 morning and cross southeast Bangladesh and north Myanmar coasts between Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) around forenoon of May 14 with maximum sustained wind speed of 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph, it added.

According to Tropical Weather Outlook issued by IMD, there is a consensus among different weather models, including IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, ECMWF, NCUM, UKMO AND IMD MME, on the track, landfall point and slight weakening of the system before landfall. However, there is variation on landfall time and intensity of the system.

 IMD GFS: 14/0600 UTC near 20.1N/93.2E.

ECMWF: 14/0300 UTC NEAR 20.4N/92.7E.

IMD MME: 14/1000 UTC NEAR 20.15N/92.88E.

Peak intensity of various models is varying between 60 KT (111.12 kmph) and 110 KT (203.72 kmph).

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that no warning has been issued for Odisha regarding wind speed or rainfall. “The cyclone will move towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts, so there will be no impact on Odisha. However, the conditions will be very rough in the deep sea,” he added.

Rainfall is likely at most places of Andaman and Nicobar Islands with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places  till May 11. The northeast is expected to record heavy rainfall during the weekend under the impact of Mocha. Tripura and Mizoram may experience heavy rainfall at isolated places on May 13 and heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on May 14. Nagaland, Manipur and South Assam  are likely to record heavy rain on May 14.