Bhubaneswar: As the southwest monsoon is set to hit Kerala coast in the next 48 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said monsoon seasonal rainfall in the country between June and September is most likely to be normal this year.
Briefing the media in New Delhi, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained that the normal rainfall between June and September refers to 96-104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)).
He further said the quantitative seasonal rainfall during the period in the country as a whole is likely to be 101% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm, he added.
The monsoon seasonal rainfall over the four homogeneous rainfall zones is most likely to be normal over northwest India (92-108%) and south peninsula (93-107%), Mohapatra said and added that the rainfall is most likely to be below normal over northeast India (<95%) and above normal over Central India (>106%).
“Apart from this, the monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rain-fed agriculture regions in the country is most likely to be above normal (>106% of LPA). However, most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the season,” he pointed out.
Asked about the rainfall in Odisha, the IMD DG said the state will receive above normal rainfall in June.
On the onset of monsoon in Odisha, he said the southeast monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast by June 3.
“Usually, the monsoon hits Odisha coast 10-12 days after reaching Kerala coast. The IMD will be able to predict five days before the onset of monsoon in the state,” he said.
Referring to the latest global model forecasts, he said it indicates that the prevailing neutral ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the possibility of development of negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season.
“As the sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have a strong influence on Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins,” Mohapatra said.
He said IMD will issue the forecast for the July rainfall in the last week of June 2021.
