No-Trust Motion: Know How BJD Walkout Will Impact House Arithmetic

New Delhi/ Bhubaneswar: The Biju Janata Dal (BJD) on Friday staged a walkout in the Lok Sabha prior to the debate on the no-confidence motion against the NDA government, thereby lowering the magic number need by the Narendra Modi dispensation to win it.

The decision of the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD, which has 19 members in the Lower House, was announced by party leader and Cuttack MP Bhatruhari Mahatab. He said the regional party took the stand to protest against central neglect towards Odisha and to protect the state’s interests.

“Since the Congress-led UPA government during its 10-year tenure and the BJP-led NDA government in the last four years have done grave injustice to the people of Odisha, the debate on the no-trust motion in Parliament will not be fruitful for the people of the state. Therefore, we are staging a walkout and not participating in the debate,” Mahtab informed Speaker Sumitra Mahajan.

The BJD strategy, however, seemed to be well-calibrated. While on the face of it the decision was in tune with the party’s nine-year-old policy of maintaining equidistance from the BJP and the Congress, the walkout brought down the opposition strength, thus indirectly aiding the Modi government to pass the first no-trust vote against it.

On the other hand, the BJD’s walkout in a way also offsets the Shiv Sena boycott.

This has, however, fuelled speculation of a tacit understanding between the BJD and the BJP. Hinting at it, Congress state president Niranjan Patnaik said that while the BJD is scared of CBI, the BJP is struggling with numbers.

It is worthwhile to mention here that the BJD had backed the NDA government in the election of the President of India Ram Nath Kovind. However, it had openly opposed the election of the vice-president.

Here is the arithmetic after BJD and Shiv Sena decided to keep away from the no confidence vote moved by the TDP, the TMC and the Congress.

1. Currently there are 533 members in the Lok Sabha (excluding the Speaker).
2.  With 19 MPs of the BJD and 18 of the Shiv Sena not participating in the vote, the effective strength of the house comes down to 496.
3. This means that the current halfway mark, stands at 249 seats. The two-thirds mark is 330.
4. The NDA began the day with 312 votes. However, with the Shiv Sena walking out, its strength has come down to 294 members.
5. The numbers may shift yet again as the day progresses, once swing parties, particularly the AIADMK and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi – make their preferences public.