Bhubaneswar: As Nuapada readies for the D-Day on Tuesday, much significance is being attached not just on the outcome but also its plausible impact on the internal dynamics of the three leading political parties – Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Congress – and the twist it can give to the political narrative of Odisha ahead of the panchayat and municipal polls slated for 2027.
For the ruling BJP, the by-election, necessitated by the death of BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia, is an acid test for the Mohan Majhi (CM)-Manmohan Samal (state BJP president) combine because this is their first electoral examination since the saffron party came to power in the state in June 2024. If BJP wins, it could give the duo a reprieve from the growing challenges in governance and the threat from a powerful faction within the party. The bypoll would also measure the political effectiveness of the Majhi government’s flagship Subhadra Yojana (a DBT scheme under which around one crore women get Rs 5000 each twice a year) and Rs 800 per kg input subsidy being given to farmers. The party has left no stone unturned, from poaching Rajendra’s son Jay Dholakia from BJD to pumping in maximum resources, to triumph in this bypoll, but internal issues and lack of any perceptible wave has made the task much harder than it could have anticipated.
For the BJD, it’s more a battle for redemption as the Naveen Patnaik-led outfit attempts to overcome the blunders, including perceived bonhomie with the BJP and alleged disregard to Odia sentiments, that led to its downfall in the 2024 twin elections. Win or loss, a good show will help the regional party retain its position as the main challenger to the BJP dispensation, giving its rank and file hope of a possible return to power in 2029. A poor show can make the going tough for the BJD in times to come, facing as it is the problems of dissension, unclear agenda and uncertain leadership.
The Congress, on its part, has been trying for a revival ever since former Union minister Bhakta Charan Das took over the reins of the Odisha Pradesh Congress Committee in February 2025. Nuapada bypoll has in a way become a personal fight for Bhakta as it is one of the seven assembly segments that constitute Kalahandi parliamentary constituency, which he has represented earlier. The Congress finished an ignominious fourth in the 2024 polls but this time it has pitted Ghasiram Majhi, who secured about 51,000 votes as an Independent candidate in the last elections (he unsuccessfully fought on Congress ticket in 2014 and 2019). If Congress wins or performs well, it will give a boost to Bhakta in particular and the Congress in general as the party wants to pose itself as the primary opponent to the BJP in the state. However, a not-so-impressive show can prove to be a dampener for the grand old party’s future prospects and might trigger dissension and calls for ouster against Bhakta.
Whichever way the political fortunes go in Nuapada, the effect would be felt in all parties, thereby providing opportunities for introspection and midcourse corrections before the bigger electoral tests.
